Progress

For the tenth month in a row, this year in Iraq was worse than last year. What do I mean? From April 2004 to January 2005, every single month has seen a higher death toll than the same month the previous year. It’s hardly the most rigorous methodology, but the consistency is remarkable; in each of the last ten months, you could say in truth and fairness that things are worse now than they were last year.

Expect a few wingnuts to come out and say that the most recent helicopter crash has nothing to do with insurgents and might have happened even if the chopper was in California or Germany. Like most things that wingnuts say, this is nonsense. Helicopters expecting ground fire fly much differently, and much more dangerously, than helicopters in secure zones. The current speculation is that the chopper hit a wire before crashing; this is a direct result of an unsecure situation on the ground.

UPDATE: Wingnuts I expect, but Matt Yglesias should know better.

Obviously the deaths of dozens of soldiers in a helicopter crash is a tragedy. But if it’s an accident, then it’s just that — a sad incident in a war that’s seen many sad incidents. If it turns out to be a shoot-down, we may have more serious problems.

Here’s the NYT on helicopters in Iraq:

Since a spate of incidents in late 2003, military helicopters have followed revised flight procedures. They now routinely fly at low altitudes – they are often seen flying just above the reeds on the Tigris River – and maintain a zigzag flight pattern to avoid ground fire. Those procedures have sharply decreased the number of incidents.

Accidents that happen because insurgents have forced changes in normal operating procedures aren’t accidents; they are part of the point of fighting a conventional army with a guerilla insurgency. This is just as true of a helicopter that hits a wire as it is of a Humvee that rolls because it was going too fast in order to avoid insurgent fire.