Oddity

I’m sure that this isn’t literally without precedent, but the Steelers are 3 point underdogs today. I certainly can’t remember a healthy home team being an underdog in a conference championship game. I can see a rational argument that this is underrating them; the Steelers won’t be physically intimidated the way the Colts were, they’re a 15-1 team that thrashed the other 2 best teams in the league, they gave up approximately 0 points at home all year, etc. But if you want be to come out and say that Cowher can beat Belicheck…well, I guess the oddsmakers have a point.

What I can’t understand is that it seems a lot more common to see people picking the Falcons than the Steelers. I would give the latter a reasonable chance, but the Falcons are going to get crushed; it’s a complete mismatch. I guess it’s the fallacy exposed in Moneyball: overrating athleticism and underrating performance. At this point, McNabb is so much better than Vick it’s ridiculous to compare them. Owens or no Owens, I’ll be surprised if this game is even close.