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Take it to Vegas*


My prediction can wait no longer.

Kerry 51
Bush 47.5
(various irrelavents) 1.5

Kerry: 304 (Gore 2000 +Florida, Ohio, NH, -Iowa)
Bush: 234

Turnout: 59%

(Local predictions)
Monorail recall fails 52-48
Weird Gambling/property tax initiative fails 63-37
Education/Sales Tax initiative passes 53-47
Charter Schools fail 55-45

Ross 51
Reichert 49

Gregoire 53
Rossi 46

Murray 55
Neathercutt 44

(I’ve seen virtually no polling on these issues, so this is straight from the gut)

I really, really wanna call Nevada and Arkansas for Kerry but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. Iowa is really a stand-in for one of Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota. I think it’s more likely than not we’ll lose one of them, and I don’t really have a sense of which of the first three are most likely. We will *not* lose Michigan (and if Jerome Armstrong is right about Bush’s Michigan strategy, we’re in better shape than I thought). If we do somehow lose Michigan, feel free to track down the gutter I’m lying in and tell me you told me so. I suspect we’ll lose Colorado, but pick up 4 EVs as the initiative will pass. I didn’t count that in because, frankly, I have no idea if it’ll hold up under review.

Florida: everyone knows they’ll cheat, but the only question is how many points is their cheating worth. I’m guessing it’s only a couple, and we’ll actually win by a little more than that.

*Do not actually take it to Vegas.

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