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Lucky or good?


Ted Barlow gathers up the good news and presents it to us. My personal ban on optimism is still intact, but for those of you who like to think nice thoughts about the future, enjoy.

In comments, Richard Bellamy makes an interesting observation–Kerry has made significant gains in recent weeks vis-a-vis the electoral college, while the national polls have not shifted much at all. This would seem to imply that Kerry is alienating voters in non-swing states and picking them up in swing states. Obviously, you’d rather just gain strength without losing it, but this is OK as well. I’d love to hear theories about why this is happening.

Of course, the simplest theory might be the best: maybe Kerry really knows what he’s doing. Ever since his remarkable back-from-the-dead performance in the primaries (be honest: did you think he had any chance in late 2003?), I’ve been trying to figure out if how much of Kerry’s success comes from right-time right-place luck, and how much comes from being a much savvier campaigner than we give him credit for. At the time, I thought it was as much luck as anything, but I’m slowing shifting toward the other explanation.

Now, if that idiot Boston mayor would hammer out a deal with the police union, so we won’t have a situation where delegates are forced to cross a line to attend, I’d be a lot happier.

(side note–blogger spellcheck tells me ‘vis’ isn’t a word, and suggests I replace it with ‘Kerouac.’ Odd.)

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