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Tag: "2012 Republican Primary"

I Think the Santorum Surge In Michigan Will Continue

[ 20 ] February 14, 2012 |

Huh — apparently Mittens wants to remind people of the fact that if he (God forbid) had been president, GM, Chrysler (and, hence, subsequently Ford, along with countless smaller suppliers) would have gone bankrupt although they were all viable companies. His argument now is that the bailout was just too successful. I hope he makes this a major campaign theme!

Little Ricky

[ 36 ] February 11, 2012 |

I’m a committed Mittens inevitabalist, but for those of you who would like to see a real race, the case for Santorum exploding all over the Republican Party…

Still Coming Up Mittens

[ 76 ] February 8, 2012 |

Santorum’s beauty pageant sweep was fun and everything, but Romney is still inevitable. The key point is the first one — Romney’s massive edge in resources didn’t come into play yesterday because he didn’t attempt to swamp Santorum in these states the way he successfully buried Gingrich in Florida. Which makes sense, since no delegates were actually at stake and Romney will get them anyway if he crushes the opposition in March. Once we get to contests that actually award delegates again, Santorum is doomed. If there was a parity of resources, the race would be genuinely unpredictable — but there isn’t.

….similar thoughts here.

To Successfully Run For President, You Have to be Running For President

[ 75 ] February 4, 2012 |

While the Republican primary was essentially over after Rick Perry’s Ambien-and-Tito’s Vodka debate performance, the stories now emerging about Newton Leroy’s amusingly inept campaign do contain an important lesson.    There was this idea, first expressed by some country-fried rubes with respect to  Sarah Palin, that in this day and age having a professional, organized campaign was obsolete.    With the kids today with their Facebook and the Tweeter and the Citizens United and the waffle irons with phones on them, you just need to show up and Express Ideas and the votes will come, so being too lazy and incompetent to run a real presidential campaign isn’t a big deal anymore.   I think we’ve buried this argument for a while.   Mittens was obviously extremely vulnerable, but the fact that he was running a serious campaign gave him a certain baseline level of performance, and he was lucky enough to be running against people who couldn’t and/or wouldn’t do the boring work of assembling the kind of state operations that are the difference between winning and losing.

And give Palin this — unlike some of her more clueless supporters, she seemed to understand this.   She recognized that just staying home was the more efficient grift.   I think Newt started to actually convince himself that he could win, which is pretty pathetic.

First As Farce, Then As More Farce

[ 59 ] February 2, 2012 |

I’ll bet this will help almost as much as the Cain endorsement and the Palin quasi-endorsement! I don’t think anyone thinks Newt is a viable candidate anymore, at least apart from himself and the LGM comment sections, but can’t his campaign be allowed to die with some dignity? Actually, come to think if it, that wouldn’t be Newt. Hopefully he’ll be able to secure Alan Keyes before Super Tuesday.

And Now, the Punchline

[ 12 ] February 1, 2012 |

If Prick Erry weren’t the kind of person who is happy to send innocent people to be executed and then do what he can to stop inquires that might stop more innocent people from being executed, I could almost feel sorry for the guy:

On primary day, Rick Perry’s extinct presidential campaign released its final donation numbers: $20.1 million. Hours later, he scored 6,742 votes in Florida. How pathetic was this? Four years earlier, in the very same position — still on the ballot, out of the race — Fred Thompson won 22,668 Florida votes. So far, adding up all the caucus votes and primary ballots, the Perry campaign (not counting Super PACs) has spent $851.88 per vote.

There are bad presidential campaigns. There are really, really bad presidential campaigns. And then there are presidential campaigns that are substantially worse than Fred Thompson’s. (Although maybe this was just Thompson’s allegedly remarkable way with women.)

Speaking of failed Republican campaigns, one way a candidate who should logically be incapable of winning a Republican primary can become the inevitable winner by February 1st is if his closest competition has no particular interest in such mundane matters as “running a professional campaign.”

Tonight’s Analysis This Afternoon

[ 55 ] January 31, 2012 |

I think Jamelle has all the essential points down in advance of the Florida results being announced. I think most people are going to accept what should have been obvious as soon as Rick Perry (the one candidate who could have been a conservative alternative to Romney with enough establishment support to compete) imploded: Romney is the Republican nominee. I doubt Gingrich would have had any chance even if he was running a serious campaign from the beginning, and he wasn’t. At any rate, after tonight nobody is going to think Newt can win, so anybody wanting to avoid acknowledging Romney’s inevitability is going to have to contrive some kind of white knight scenario. But that’s obviously not to happen — it will be literally impossible for a new candidate to win, and while it’s theoretically possible for a new entrant to force a brokered convention Jamelle is right that nobody has the “considerable fundraising and organizational ability, a national constituency, and a message that can appeal to a broad swath of the Republican Party,” that would be necessary. (And, in addition, there’s the fact that Bill Kristol’s fantasy candidates just don’t want to run. It’s not as if Romney’s vulnerabilities weren’t obvious last year; if Daniels or Ryan or whoever wanted in they would have done it when they could win. And after tonight, Romney will be a lot less vulnerable.)

Romney will be the candidate, and Republican voters will reconcile themselves with him very quickly. I very much doubt that Newt or Santorum are in this for the long haul, but I also don’t think it matters.

Phil Gramm for Dummies

[ 57 ] January 31, 2012 |

Money matters a great deal in politics, but Prick Erry impressively demonstrates that it only goes so far if your backers have nothing to work with.

Newt Has Invented His Doom

[ 30 ] January 30, 2012 |

The first last step was touching the moon.

As the Republican primaries approach their de facto end in Florida, Newt is making a lot of noises about staying in to the end, and entertainingly is now resorting to the last refuge of pundits who want to deny the obvious, the brokered convention. Drum finds the possibility of Newt taking this to the convention plausible; I suspect that no matter what he’s saying now he’s going to find himself tired of getting his clock cleaned while running out of money pretty quickly. Either way, it’s worth remembering that there’s no actual evidence that a divisive primary hurts the electoral promises of the eventual winner, so it doesn’t really matter whether Newt stays in or not.

“I feel eventually you would care enough about me…that I could live with that.”

[ 10 ] January 27, 2012 |

I love Jon Chait’s Mitt Romney/Ace Rothstein analogy.   The problem for the conservative base is that their competing suitors can’t even rise to the level of a card shark, a golf hustler, and/or a pimp from Beverly Hills. Rick Perry was like the juiced-in slots manager. (“You have got me there. Old Rick is as useless as tits on a boar.”) Newt, even after he sorta decided to run for president 6 weeks or so before the Iowa primary, is more like Morry from GoodFellas, a pain in the ass who was useful in some previous roles but becomes intolerable as he gets more ambitious. (“I’d do anything for you!” “Except stop busting my balls.”) I think Newt just asked the Republican establishment whether the diner they’re heading to has danish…

Mittens In Comparative Perspective

[ 55 ] January 25, 2012 |

A useful chart from Plumer. For further context:

Romney has said he was unemployed. He’s right. He actually does nothing to earn most of his income. He’s just in possession of a giant pile of cash. He pays some people to do stuff with that giant pile of cash so it earns a rate of return. And because we are ruled by horrible people who think the lives of the 1% are more important than everyone else, the tax rate on any money that pile of cash earns is much lower than it is on the money earned by people who actually work.

And while this is both inequitable and makes no sense in terms of “free market” economics, he would pay even less under his own plan.

What You Missed At the GOP Debate

[ 22 ] January 23, 2012 |
  • First you get the beet sugar.   Then you get the power    Then you get the WOMEN!
  • The GOP is proud of its appalling and extremely unpopular behavior in the Schiavo case.   Also, according to great historian Newt Gingrich apparently Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, and Tony Lazzeri took legal resources that should have been used to file frivolous lawsuits denying Terri Schiavo’s will.
  • I think a “self-deportation” plan that started with these four men would have some promise.
  • Ron Paul still wants to return to the success of VanBurenomics.

…and, seriously, see Clara Jeffrey on “self-deportation.”

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