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Author Page for Dave Brockington

Born in San Jose, grew up in Seattle, received a Ph.D. in poli sci from University of Washington, worked for three years at Universiteit Twente in Enschede, Netherlands, and have worked at the University of Plymouth for eight academic years now in Plymouth, United Kingdom.

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"I’m pissed. If you’re an American and you’re not pissed then there’s something wrong with you."

[ 0 ] July 28, 2009 | Dave Brockington

So opined Forward Brian Ching, following the US MNT’s convincing roll over and die act on Sunday in the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup.  To the main rival.

As I was well off the grid for a couple of days, I didn’t see the game at all, and only learned about the debacle not long after it ended, when a good friend rang my US cell number as I emerged from the darkness.  I didn’t even have cell coverage for most of that time.  Therefore, I don’t have much to comment on the game itself beyond what anybody can read / watch in the MSM or on the blogs.  I can discuss the merits of Bradley’s strategy of going with a younger squad for this tournament; we knew that he was going to do this before the Confederations Cup kicked off.  
I understand and to a limit accept this strategy.  However, that limit is is crossed with the final — the benefits of winning this tournament outweigh what might be observed in the understudies.  The United States does not play competitive matches against class opposition nearly enough.  There’s not much quality in CONCACAF outside of the top two or three sides, and friendlies suck (did either England or the US learn much of anything in England’s 2-0 victory over the US at Wembley in May of 2008?)  
The Confederations Cup provides such a venue, and Mexico will learn from the experience, not the US. Actually, “Mexico, as winner of the 2009 Gold Cup, gets precisely doodly-squat”, to quote a commenter. I was wrong, and I knew this too, just overlooked it. Damn me to the eternal flames of hell.  It’s the ’07 and ’11 (etc.) Gold Cups that progress to the Confed Cup — but this only recently changed as the Confed Cup used to be every two years.
I’m not going to suggest that the US would have won if a stronger squad was sent out, but the way Mexico have been playing of late, a stronger squad would have seriously improved the probability of a victory.  And arguably, given the 30 man squad named for this tournament, one of the weakest starting XIs was sent out to face Mexico from within the tournament squad.  Indeed, only three of the 18 named to the match day squad against Mexico are based outside of the MLS (and of that, two in the Norwegian league, one in the Danish league).  
So I was disappointed when I learned the result.  Then I wandered over to USS Mariner and read this first line: “Now that Erik Bedard is back on the DL and the season is basically toast . . . “
Excellent.

Voting Against G.W. Bush until 2050?

[ 0 ] July 23, 2009 | Dave Brockington
On the erosion of the racial gap in turnout.

I’ve wanted to say something about this since yesterday.  Unfortunately, I haven’t had a lot of time to give it a proper analysis (nor do I now, really), and a cursory perusal of other blogs had not, as of last night (PDT), anything.  If it holds, it is not good for the burnt-out shell of the Republican Party.

Turnout is, in general, habitual, and it’s a habit that is either formed or not formed young — usually the first three election cycles one is eligible to participate in.  The decision to or not to vote in the initial opportunity can be influenced by many conditions, such as the competitiveness and/or salience of the election, or the presence of a particularly attractive candidate.  
I’m not going out on a limb when I speculate that the 2008 Presidential election in the U.S. featured the latter, especially in relation to certain racial categories.  The question that many will ask is whether or not these new voters hold.  This will make the 2010 Congressional elections informative for several reasons.  My suspicion is, backed by what we know from past elections, that the surge in turnout the youth cohort demonstrated in 2008 will hold.  It will fluctuate, of course, but it will hold in the main.
The problem that this presents for the Republicans is two-fold.  First, voters tend to maintain the party loyalties that they establish in their first few elections.  Again, this is on average, and there are anecdotal exceptions to the rule, but it is a general principle.  Second, the surge in turnout in the young cohort was not limited to African-Americans, but also Latinos and Asians.  If the Republicans continue pandering to their open-minded, inquisitive, generously tolerant Palinesque base, they’re only going to solidify these voters as Democrats.  
In other words, keep digging deep, suckers.
I’d expand upon this and link up a bunch of the literature, but I don’t have the time.  The L.O.M.L. and I are off to the Oregon Brewers Festival, where I understand beer can be purchased and consumed.
Final note: warm congratulations to Rob and Davida.

Hey, the Mariners Won in ’95 Without Griffey, Why Not England Without Pietersen?

[ 0 ] July 22, 2009 | Dave Brockington

The gap of 10 days between the second and third tests of the 2009 Ashes series represents the longest such fallow period of the series.  This is a good opportunity to take a look at where the series stands.

As an aside, for the uninitiated, the Ashes, competed between England and Australia every two years (or so, as it’s home and away, and cricket is a summer game, adjustments have to be made) are considered one of sports all time (insert various cliche’ dripping adjectives here) rivalries.  It’s certainly a Big Deal in both England (and Wales) and Australia, and the way this series is shaping up sort of, when I’m not on my guard or paying close enough attention, makes me miss spending the summer in England.  One of the many weird rules of the sport and series is that if the result after five tests is a draw, the side currently holding the Ashes retains it.  Hence, while England are currently up with one win, one draw, and three to play, we still have to consider the Australians favorites to retain the Ashes.
For starters, this news can not possibly be spun as a positive for England.  Pietersen has not had a great series by his standards, but he remains England’s single biggest run scoring threat.  Granted, he was clearly playing injured, but any analysis of England’s chances for a series victory hinged on Pietersen to some degree.  Without a fit KP, it’s difficult to see how the weakness of this England side in scoring runs can be addressed.  The 2005 side had Pietersen well in form, Flintoff in form with the bat that he will never recapture, Trescothick, and Vaughan (who, while inconsistent, did hit for 166 in the first innings in the third test).  In 2009, Strauss had a sublime second test, and Collingwood has shown flashes, but batting has to be considered a weakness.  Losing Pietersen hurts (though Rob Smyth at The Guardian isn’t too concerned . . . )  Ian Bell appears the likely replacement, though there are other options.  Indeed, I agree with commenter Max Bartlett in response to the previous on The Times when he writes:
“The selectors should travel down to Taunton, go down on bended knee and beg Marcus T to come back. His form clearly makes him the best replacement for KP.”

The Pietersen saga has drowned out any other Ashes news today, but over at Ashes HQ, they have an excellent midterm report card on the performance of each player for each side in the first two tests.  Of course, that the writer covering Australia uses a 10-point system, while the writer covering England an A-F system, should be no barrier in comparing the two analyses.
On to football (soccer), all I can say about this is what the hell?

Hell Yeah!

[ 0 ] July 20, 2009 | Dave Brockington

This delights me to no end.  However, I don’t think I can use it as a defense if I were to deploy some of my more favorite words in front of my partner’s six year-old.

Frank McCourt 1930-2009

[ 0 ] July 20, 2009 | Dave Brockington

Obit here.  I liked his books back in the day, and I’m certain it had nothing to do with growing up Irish Catholic in the US.  

Some random numbers, some obscure terms, more random numbers, more obscure terms . . . and England lose.

[ 0 ] July 19, 2009 | Dave Brockington

This describes my comprehension of cricket, at least until the 2005 Ashes.  I learned to appreciate the game, I know the rules, but I’ll admit that tactics and strategy still, for the most part, pass me by.

The title references the second test of the 2009 Ashes, currently underway.  Oz are 310-5 in their second innings.  This puts Australia only 211 runs behind with five wickets to burn.  If England lose at Lords, two questions will surely be raised:
1. Should Strauss have ordered the follow-on after Australia’s limp first innings?  There are pros and cons to this, and while I’m inclined to force the follow-on while you have momentum on your side, as above I’ll admit I don’t appreciate all the tactical nuance involved.
2. Should England have declared as soon as they did?  At the time a 500+ run lead looked safe, and the Sunday and Monday sessions are threatened by rain.  The best way to increase the probability of a test victory in the face of uncertain weather is to afford the opposition as much time to bat as possible.  But in Cardiff, we saw what Australia is capable of, so would 500+ (I think it was 511?) suffice?
I’d have gone for a few more runs myself.
UPDATE: bad light stops play with Australia 313-5.  They have one day and five wickets to  score 209 for a test victory.

Cowboys Stadium as Stimulus Package for the Entire Planet? Just Beautiful.

[ 0 ] July 18, 2009 | Dave Brockington

While I happily voted for Safeco Field back in the day (1995 I think), I have always believed that public subsidies for sports stadia is a dodgy pursuit at best.  The common argument forwarded by proponents, that the stadium itself serves as an economic motor for the neighborhood, city, region, and even state, has rarely found support in the literature.  

Then I read this.  Somewhat admirably, the public contribution from the city of Arlington is a mere $325 million out of an entire budget of a mind-boggling $1.12 billion.  But that’s still $325 million at a time when neighborhoods, cities, regions, even entire states are enjoying a bit of a budgetary disaster.  The best line is from Jerry Jones, owner of “America’s Team”, in defense of the municipal subsidy: 
“Jones says Cowboys Stadium will be its own stimulus package that will help “the country and this world” dig out of the recession.”

The entire world!  Imagine what the 2012 London Olympics can do, dig the entire solar system out of the recession?  Excellent.
I recognize that public subsidies of sports stadia constitute a soft target, and it’s not just sports that are subsidized.  When Boeing elected to assemble the 787 (out of large chunks made elsewhere) in Everett, Washington, both the city of Everett and the state of Washington afforded Boeing large subsidies, because Boeing may have, what, outsourced the 787′s manufacturing to Wichita?  Mexico?  India?  This is a direct function of a rich and nuanced federal system.  So long as jurisdictions are allowed to vary their tax rates and exceptions to the same, venue shopping such as this is a rational response on the part of any business, sports included — and explains my vote for Safeco back in 1995.  And note, compared to unitary systems, I tend to support federal systems.
This doesn’t mean that it doesn’t suck, however, and here I have a strong preference for the British model, where the club (usually) owns the stadium.

Random Airport Blogging, Newark Edition

[ 0 ] July 14, 2009 | Dave Brockington

While crossing the Atlantic, I had time to pore over the most recent Economist, time that has been precious in other, more dynamic settings.  I came across Norm Stamper’s letter to the editor regarding the benefits of legalization.  Stamper was the Seattle police chief from 94 until he was either forced out or resigned on his own volition (my money is on some interpretation of the former) following the WTO circus of 1999.  I like to see statements like his, though my cynical side would prefer, yet never expect, a serving person of some authority to make such a reasonable argument.  

This dream did, indeed happen in the UK a few years ago.  Brian Paddick was a police commissioner for a London borough where he proposed that his officers don’t bother with possession charges so they might concentrate on the shit that really matters.  While not as radical (or as brilliant) as the “Hamsterdam” experiment suggested in Season 3 of The Wire, it was still one of the rare realistic approaches to the issue.
Of course, while Paddick did realize some success when then Home Secretary (and rumored womanizer) David Blunkett demoted pot (or, what the British charmingly refer to as cannabis) from Class B to Class C, one of Blunkett’s numerous successors, Jacqui Smith, restored cannabis to its full Class B glory.
Hence, while Stamper is fighting the good fight from the security of his retirement, the cause may appear to be in retreat.
Some random bits: I fly a lot, and when I fly, I tend to cover longer than average distances, and frequent several airports on any given itinerary.  Which means I sort of know what I’m doing.  While generally a patient man, I can’t stand people who are befuddled by simple procedures like the following:
a) check in.
b) security.
c) airports in general.
This one really gets to me: people wandering around airports, preferably slowly, marvelling at the innovation where your connection is actually on television screens, or even these newfangled innovations where gates at airports now have numbers that operate in a logical manner (repeat after me: 2 comes after 1, 3 after 2, and if you walk far enough, you’ll work out that there is a structured order to where these gates appear.  Usually.)
d) the tacit rules of the airplane.
if you are just settling in to your seat, and there is a line behind you, especially if it’s a single aisle aircraft, don’t reorganize the contents of your carry-on that you have just stowed in the overhead bin while 3/4 of the passengers have yet to even view their seats for the first time.
Oh, another bit: I hate flying, and not for any of the reasons listed above.  I have a healthy fear of falling out of the sky from somewhere between 35,000 and 40,000 feet.  
But over the years, I have developed coping mechanisms.  While the coping mechanisms aren’t great in Newark Airport, they’re nicer than the bloody marys I had a dozen hours ago in Bristol Airport.  

Random Airport Blogging, Bristol Edition

[ 0 ] July 14, 2009 | Dave Brockington

I’m in the early stages of a PLH-BRS-EWR-PDX itinerary.  Stop two, enjoying what is perhaps the worst bloody mary of my life.  And that’s saying something.

This is clearly karmic balance for the window with nobody in the middle seat on the BRS-EWR leg, and the exit row, again with nobody in the middle, on the EWR-PDX leg.  And I’m not sure it’s worth it.
My thoughts go out to John Hartson and his family.  He was one of my favorites on those Celtic teams.
Freddy Flintoff appears to be injured again.  It must be Tuesday.
This I don’t care about.
This however, I do give a damn about.  It’s been 11 years since the Good Friday accords.  It’s been up and down, of course, but one would think that the so-called Real IRA might have received the memo sent out by Mr. Adams and Mr. McGuinness.  
It’s 14 July in England, so I’m stunned that it’s raining.  I don’t think I’m going to too much mind some time away from this island.

"and I think he’s a very good player."

[ 0 ] July 12, 2009 | Dave Brockington
Landon Donovan, on his English teammate, the latter of whom is admittedly the second best player on said team.
Oh, and England miraculously held out for a draw in the first test.  

"Jack Zduriencik managed to cure cancer, end world poverty, and bring peace to the middle east."

[ 0 ] July 12, 2009 | Dave Brockington

As I said when I introduced myself here on LGM, I have been a fan of the Seattle Mariners since 1977.  Which means I’ve happily watched a lot of truly dreadful baseball, in a setting that perhaps only compared to the Stade Olympique for grimness.  I believe Scott has been to both, so at least he has a comparative framework from which to make such claims.

A commenter in reply to my cricket post yesterday wanted some analysis on the Yuni trade.  It’s all good according to the guys over at USS Mariner, whom I’ve been reading religiously before they were USS Mariner.  
BTW, England might just pull out a draw.  235-9 at the moment.
I was an early adopter of proper sabermetrics, but then it appealed to me automatically given my statistics (lite) training.  That’s how I think as a social scientist, and I’ve been a baseball fan all my life (first game: 27 April 1975, seventh birthday, Candlestick Park, Dodgers v Giants.  With my dad and my grand dad.  And, bonus, it was bat day).  The Mariners as an organization have been relatively late adopters of this new math.  So when I quote Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner in my title about the new regime, I couldn’t agree more.

"There’s nothing wrong with losing. It’s the capitulation that is so embarrassing."

[ 0 ] July 11, 2009 | Dave Brockington

This is a quote by one Michael F Watts, on the BBC web page, in response to the first innings of the first test match of the 2009 Ashes series.  I was going to blog a bit about cricket, English cricket, and the Ashes, but why bother?  I’ll leave you with my facebook status from Wednesday, when this test began: 

David Brockington notes that England won the toss in the first Test, which means it’s now all downhill.

Which was prescient when one considers that Australia responded to England’s pathetic 435 all out with a massive 674 for 6 declared.  England’s best hope is a lot of rain, and soon.  A draw is possible, however unlikely.

Each test match can last five days.  The Ashes features five tests during the summer.  As England lost the 2007-08 series 5-0, it promises to be a long, depressing summer in England.  As it usually is a long, depressing summer in England due to the weather, this only makes one reach for a drink first thing in the morning rather than waiting until the socially acceptable (in England) time of noon.
I can’t wait to be back in the PNW for two months, where I’ll watch the Mariners a few times, the Portland Beavers, and even the Eugene Emeralds in their final season at beautiful, old Civic Stadium.
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