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The State of the Race


Nate has some good analysis of recent Iowa polling, concluding (accurately I think) that Biden and Sanders are vulnerable frontrunners, but nobody else has been particularly impressive so far either:

I remain skeptical — whether because of motivated reasoning or not — but I have to acknowledge that Biden’s favorability scores mean he can’t be entirely written off. Another implication of this is that Bernie’s constant re-litigation of 2016 in his speeches is, from a purely tactical standpoint, really dumb. Running against the “Democratic establishment” in this race, especially if Biden gets in, means running against Barack Obama, who very popular among Democrats. (Given that much of it is in departures from his prepared remarks, his staff seems to understand this.) But at this point, Harris and Warren are doing enough to potentially break through later, the revelations about Klobuchar seem to have ended her already highly limited chances, and while I like her a lot it doesn’t look like Gillibrand is going to get any traction.

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