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Will Kavanaugh Make Democrats Care About the Court?


If you’re interested in some actual information about voters in battleground districts as opposed to random anecdotes assuming that minutia that obsesses conservative pundits influences swing voters, you might want to check out this very useful story. In terms of how Democrats are doing, the answer is…well, with the exodus of educated suburban women from Trump’s Republican Party seeming to accelerate. (You may be surprised to discover that “Cory Booker’s performance during the Judiciary Committee hearings” and “women with tattoos” were not among the highest priority issues for voters.) There’s a lot of rich detail, but I found this particularly interesting:

Among those who cite judicial nominations as extremely important, 50 percent are backing the Democrat in their districts and 47 percent are backing the Republican. That finding is certain to be closely watched in the wake of the fight over Brett M. Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, as a measure of energy and intensity ahead of the midterms.

I observed recently that Republicans have been able to have their cake and eat it too, as GOP voters have both been more mobilized by the courts and had a much more negative attitude even as the Supreme Court has marched steadily to the right. I think there’s a reasonable chance that Kavanaugh’s confirmation will help to alleviate this asymmetry. One poll obviously doesn’t prove anything, but it’s encouraging.

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