I think Cruz could do it. I put it at about Rubio 55, Cruz 40, and the field 5.
I’m not saying Trump is a lock or anything, but to not consider him the favorite at this point seems very unrealistic. Cruz and Rubio are both going to stay in this thing to the bitter end, and Trump will win a plurality of GOP primary voters against those two I think.
I would be shocked at this point if Cruz wins the nomination. South Carolina is an almost ideal state for him and he barely got 20% of the vote. 72% of the voters in the primary tonight identified themselves as evangelical or born again (this is the largest percentage ever), and Trump won the plurality of those voters: 33%, to 27% and 22% for Cruz and Rubio respectively. If Cruz is losing the evangelical vote to Donald Trump he is toast.
Rubio is another story, as the GOP establishment will be all in for him after tonight, but needless to say that cuts both ways in 2016.
Anyway, people who talk as if Trump still has no chance — and there’s still quite a bit of that going around — are flat-out delusional, but the man does seem to have that effect on lots of observers.