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I Have a YouTube Video and Articles at Hot Soup and Kasufiles Explaining the SKEWED Polls

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theres-a-chance

H.A. Goodman is a national treasure, and he has a HOT TAKE too scorching for Salon:

Today’s public relations spin won’t work, especially since you’re reading this online and Americans spend around 2 hours per day on social networking sites. Bernie Sanders now has greater control of the internet than Obama in either of his campaigns. The Washington Post writes “Sen. Bernie Sanders fares so favorably in Google searches” that “nine of his top 10 results were rated ‘very pro’ in the analysis.” Voter sentiment after 2016 will be judged by online metrics, not landline polling data, and we’re already seeing why Bernie Sanders will eventually become president.

Type “Hillary Clinton” on Google now. Before you get to type “Clinton,” the words “Hillary Clinton Email” will drop down. Also, I explain in this YouTube segment what poll numbers can’t, and why I will only vote for Sanders.

….

My first article on Bernie Sanders winning the presidency, titled It’s Official — Bernie Sanders Has Overtaken Hillary Clinton In the Hearts and Minds of Democrats is now at 695,000 Facebook Likes. Therefore, the question isn’t whether or not I’m the second coming of Walter Cronkite. The real question is this: Who else could propel a piece on the 2016 election to almost 700,000 Facebook likes, other than our future president?

Needs MOAR inferences made from lawn signs.

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  • Malaclypse

    Therefore, the question isn’t whether or not I’m the second coming of Walter Cronkite.

    He’s right – that isn’t in question at all.

    • That paragraph almost physically pained me.

      I think I’m around this guy’s age, maybe a few years younger. Please note: we are not all this stupid and self-centered and obsessed with worthless internet points. I know a lot of people around my age who are supporting Sanders but who will vote for Clinton, because they are not idiots and they remember what it was like to have a Republican president.

      • Quite Likely

        What hasn’t gotten enough attention is whether Clinton supporters will vote for Sanders in the general. They are the ones we should be much more worried about, since unlike Sanders supporters at least some of the Clinton supporter demographic might actually find themselves between the Republicans and Democrats in terms of policy preferences if Sanders is the nominee.

        • jim, some guy in iowa

          what part of the Clinton supporter demographic would that be?

          • njorl

            The left of center radical anti-Socialist interventionists. All seven of them.

            • random

              Bullshit they are slightly to the *right* of the left of the center of the radical anti-Socialist interventionists…..And there’s only 6.5 of them!

              • Malaclypse

                And there’s only 6.5 of them!

                Now that’s how to be a Splitter.

        • NonyNony

          I have no doubt that if Sanders wins the nomination, the same percentage of Clinton supporters who voted for Obama in ’08 will vote for Sanders.

          Meaning almost all of them. Because they’re Democrats and that means that they vote for Democrats. Even if it doesn’t turn out to be the Democrat that they wanted to have running.

          • Ken

            So this H.A. Goodman person isn’t a Democrat? Because in the quote he (she?) says, “I will only vote for Sanders.”

            • So this H.A. Goodman person isn’t a Democrat?

              No. He’s a solipsist.

              .

              • Joseph Slater

                Say what you will about solipsism, Dude, at least it’s an. . . . Oh wait. . . .

            • NonyNony

              Well the question wasn’t whether Sanders supporters will vote for Clinton – that I’m not sure about because a lot of Sanders supporters might well not be Democrats, but rather independent left-leaning people. I don’t know if any polling has been done to indicate whether Sanders support mostly comes from Democrats or from independents.

              But I do know what the history of Clinton supporters is – and that’s that they’re reliable Democratic voters. They were in the past and I have no reason to doubt that they’d do the same thing now. (If you notice I also said “almost” – there are of course childish fools who will cut their nose of to spite their own face, but they seem to be in the minority of Clinton supporters and I strongly suspect among Sanders supporters as well.)

              As to HA Goodman’s status as a Democrat – read some of his mash notes to Rand Paul and tell me what you think. I see a confused young man who needs to pay the bills and has figured out that writing HOT TAKES for online political sites will get him the scratch he needs to pay his rent. But perhaps I’m too cynical about such things.

          • Ken

            So this H.A. Goodman person isn’t a Democrat? Because in the quote he says, “I will only vote for Sanders.”

        • kped

          It hasn’t gotten enough attention because it’s not an issue given the state of the race. Another reason is because Hillary doesn’t have demented supporters writing inane screeds on well known Liberal blogs saying they won’t vote for Bernie.

          Also, they voted for Obama, so I’m sure they’ll do it for Bernie if he does manage to win.

        • joe from Lowell

          What hasn’t gotten enough attention is whether Clinton supporters will vote for Sanders in the general. They are the ones we should be much more worried about, since unlike Sanders supporters at least some of the Clinton supporter demographic might actually find themselves between the Republicans and Democrats in terms of policy preferences if Sanders is the nominee.

          Only the blue dogs, and at this point, there just aren’t very many of them in the party anymore.

          And even among them, the Republicans’ latest dash to the right can’t help but look uninviting.

        • efgoldman

          What hasn’t gotten enough attention is whether Clinton supporters will vote for Sanders in the general

          Probably because Sanders’ chances of being the nominee are about the same as me playing left field for the Red Sox next year.
          (I know Henley was no prize but he’s not 70 years old, either.)

  • sleepyirv

    Hey we all laughed at Ron Paul, and now he’s the God-Emperor of America, ruling over us in his giant blimp.

    • Must.Not.Make.Christie.Joke.

      • Gregor Sansa

        Must.not.laugh.

    • joe from Lowell

      Back in 2008, when the libertarians and conservatives at Reason were laying it on particularly thick with the “Barack Obama’s supporters are fanatical and cult-like,” I killed the thread with the following comment:

      “What, did they buy him a blimp?”

      • random

        LOL

      • sharculese

        HE’S THE ONLY CANDIDATE WITH A BLIMP

        RELOVUTION!

        • Malaclypse

          BERNIE’S GETTING A MONORAIL, BECAUSE THAT’S HOW COOL BERNIE IS!

          • Sly

            Carson: “I heard those things are awfully loud.”
            Sanders: “It glides as softly as a cloud.”
            Cruz: “Is there a chance the track could bend?”
            Sanders: “Not a chance, my right-wing friend.”
            Trump: “What about us brain-dead slobs?”
            Sanders: “You’ll be given cushy jobs.”
            Huckabee: “Were you sent here by the Devil?”
            Sanders: “No, good sir, I’m on the level.”
            Christie: “The ring came off my pudding can.”
            Sanders: “Take my pen knife, my good man.”

            • Hogan

              Very nice, although I’d have gone with Jindal for “Is there a chance the track could bend?”

      • PatrickG

        Good gods, Joe, what sin were you expiating by commenting at Reason.com?

        I mean, sure, you seem all right, but that kind of reckless behavior can have long-term effects. Only one step up from engaging with idiots in a feminist’s YouTube comment section, for Crissake.

        • joe from Lowell

          It was better before November 2008. It was a pretty intellectually-diverse, broad-spectrum commentariat. I was far from the only liberal. It was an interesting place where smart people debated.

          The right-wingers’ response to Obama’s election sent it into a downward spiral. They’d take out their bitterness on any convenient liberal, so more liberals left, making it even less inviting for anyone but the angry right, until it became a real sewer.

    • efgoldman

      he’s the God-Emperor of America

      Co-ruler with President Giuliani and co-President Gooodhair Perry. .

  • DEJL

    Everyone on the internet likes Firefly, which is why it ran for 7 seasons, and is regarded as one of the most successful tv programs of all time.

    • Malaclypse

      Sure, stop our mockery dead it its tracks by citing a tragedy. Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!

      • Lost Left Coaster

        Yes, let’s not politicize the cancellation of Firefly. For God’s sake, some people have no respect.

    • timb

      I mean, that comment hurt me deeply

    • joe from Lowell

      This comment hurts me in my me.

    • witlesschum

      Well, my days of not taking HA Goodman seriously were certainly coming to a middle, so good reference.

    • Quite Likely

      To be fair, Firefly probably would have done better if Fox programming decisions were made by national vote (or even an electoral college system).

  • kped

    I got into it with HA! Goodman on twitter yesterday, and he just kept reposting the same poll from December 2007 when Clinton led Obama as if it meant…something? He then blocked me :( WHatever will i do now?

    But holy hell, this is his masterpiece! Facebook likes as a sign of something? Well shit son, looks like Bernie will have to wait, this cute cat gif has millions of likes, so say hello to your new President, Mr Buttons!

    • CaptainBringdown
      • kped

        Oh god…a landslide Republican victory….

      • Karen24

        15,445,956 Facebook likes for Star Wars. I didn’t even bother to check Grumpy Cat, Jesus, or Nickleback.

        • Its always kind of astonishing to put something that seems popular politically (Bill O’Reilly or some other self proclaimed important thinker) up against the popularity of even a relatively unpopular piece of mass entertainment. I think Maddow ran the numbers once and both their shows were blown out of the water by something like sponge bob squarepants. (Not cited for truth, just a Meganesque hypothetical).

          • Karen24

            I would completely believe that O’Reilly loses to SpongeBob.

            • Malaclypse

              You would have been correct:

              Billo: 1.5M likes.
              Spongebob: 54.5M

              • Manju

                Oh, you should start an interweb netsite with nothing but shit like this…George Stephanopoulos vs Mr Snuffleupagus; Nixon v Elvis, Trump v Trump, etc.

                You’ll be a kajillionaire in no time.

                • Manju

                  Robert Byrd v Big Bird…i’d click that shit.

                • Karen24

                  It would be like the late, lamented Kitten Wars but for pop culture and politics junkies.

                • BigHank53

                  I will pay CASH MONEY for Big Bird’s dw-nominate score, and I am not joking in the slightest.

                • joe from Lowell

                  Elizabeth Warren vs. Elisabeth Shue

                  I bet Elisabeth Shue would beat a particularly-prominent, popular senator.

                  Seriously, this could be a thing. Medal of Honor vs. medal of honor recipients.

            • rea

              SpongeBob understands politics better than O’Reilly, and is a nicer guy, too.

              • Hogan

                Absorbent, yellow, porous . . . he’s got it all.

                • Does this explain Billo’s well known antipathy to loofahs?

                • JustRuss

                  Porifera envy?

                • Gregor Sansa

                  After picking loofahs off the vine, you have to get rid of the non-cellulose part. In order to do that, at least in Monterrico, Guatemala where I’ve seen it done, you leave the things in the “canal” (the slightly brackish water behind the sand bar you live on) for a few days, where I guess the little fish eat the parts you don’t want. So marine life and loofahs are indeed natural enemies.

              • efgoldman

                I will pay CASH MONEY for Big Bird’s dw-nominate score

                Unfortunately, the pre-school demographic doesn’t have land lines.

          • Sly

            I think the most well-kept secret in American newsmedia has got to be “No one actually watches Cable News.”

    • JMP

      So wait, was this serious? I wasn’t sure until the end, but then figured that the “I’m the second coming of Walter Cronkite” line was a dead giveaway that this was, in fact, a parody. He actually seriously said that?

      • kped

        No, he is saying he isn’t, or that the question doesn’t matter.

        But honestly, I don’t think he’s serious. He is just trying to make a career, become the guy CNN or MSNBC calls to come on and give 5 minutes of stupid for their blabbing head shows.

        • Ken

          I always thought that was done by a lowest-bidder system, which is why they get such abysmal idiots.

        • Sly

          He should aim higher.

          Sometime in January 2017: “Next on Hannity, even the liberal H.A. Goodman thinks President Hillary Clinton’s is a miserable failure after only a few days in office.”

      • He was pretty much admitting that his articles get linked not because of their quality but because they’re clickbait about a popular trend. Absolutely incredible.

    • random

      In fairness, “polls at this point are meaningless” is the go-to argument that people make when dismissing polling data that doesn’t show what they want or expect it to show.

      But usually when they cast about to invent alternate criteria, they at least rely on something that at least arguably has shown to have some predictive value or merit in the past (like endorsements, or “being Establishment”). They don’t just…make stuff up.

      • Murc

        In fairness, “polls at this point are meaningless” is the go-to argument that people make when dismissing polling data that doesn’t show what they want or expect it to show.

        Yeah, you see a lot of people saying this about Trump.

        To be fair, they might be right. Scott has been saying Carson’s polls were meaningless for awhile, and looks like he was right. But Scott actually reasoned his way through it.

        • random

          The dispute over Carson’s numbers were for the general (nobody, including me, was arguing that Carson was likely to win the primary).

          And no it doesn’t at all look like Scott was right that Carson’s consistent months-long streak of general election dominance over Hillary was meaningless. As of today, he’s *still* beating her and only Rubio is polling slightly better nationally (when you break it down to the swing states Carson’s doing better than Rubio actually and is more likely to win the EC than any other Republican).

          This is with him running in 4th place in the Republican primary. I don’t see how you can interpret that as him not having some serious general election mojo.

          • jim, some guy in iowa

            it might just be that Carson is too damn uninformed for even Republicans- and as that becomes more apparent to the general electorate who haven’t been paying as close attention to him as primary voters Carson’s numbers would fall apart there too

            • random

              it might just be that Carson is too damn uninformed for even Republicans

              I lump ‘too uninformed for even Republicans’ in the same category as perpetual motion machines and married bachelors.

              and as that becomes more apparent to the general electorate who haven’t been paying as close attention to him as primary voters Carson’s numbers would fall apart there too

              Just the fact that you have to dream up scenarios in which his numbers fall apart in the first place (to get him down where the rest of the GOP is already) points to the fact that he’s a good general election candidate.

              But also, this isn’t how it would go down. If the GOP nominates a black Presidential candidate to run against a white Democrat, the media is going to work to ensure the Republicans get elected and there’s pretty much no attack you can make on him that doesn’t end up in “Democrats are the real racists” territory.

              Thankfully he’s unlikely to win the nomination so, dodged a bullet here.

              • jim, some guy in iowa

                (shrugs) I work off the idea someone who can’t win the nomination of the party can’t win the general. So far, anyway, history bears that out. Maybe when Carson runs third party you’ll be proven right

                • random

                  I work off the idea someone who can’t win the nomination of the party can’t win the general.

                  Of course you can’t win if you don’t get nominated. That isn’t addressing the question of who would do best in the Electoral College if they were to be nominated.

                • Gregor Sansa

                  “History bears that out”

                  I could totally beat Joan of Arc in a swordfight! If she can’t even survive, how can she be so tough? History bears me out on this.

                • random

                  I could totally beat Joan of Arc in a swordfight! If she can’t even survive, how can she be so tough? History bears me out on this.

                  Hee. But yeah I see his point. It’s simultaneously true that for non-theoretical purposes Carson has effectively zero chance of winning the general election, while at the same time he has a better chance of winning the general election than any candidate in either party.

          • efgoldman

            As of today, he’s *still* beating her and only Rubio is polling slightly better nationally

            You’ve been saying some iteration of this for weeks, but I have yet to see a link.

            • ColBatGuano

              This NBC poll shows that Clinton is tied with both Carson and Rubio. The value of nationwide polls at this point is an entirely different question.

    • Hob

      I think Goodman is actually predicting a frightening Constitutional crisis. He’s not saying that the candidate with the most likes wins, he’s saying that anyone who can get that many likes must be our future president. The only solution is a ruling junta composed of Sanders, Trump, Grumpy Cat, Double Rainbow guy, SpongeBob, cute cats #2-1000, and Pizza Rat.

      • kped

        The damn electoral college wasn’t setup to factor in Facebook likes and Tumblr GIF’s. A constitutional convention must be convened.

        • Ahuitzotl

          an online constitutional convention!

    • efgoldman

      Well shit son, looks like Bernie will have to wait, this cute cat gif has millions of likes

      Yeah, but the cat has to be 35 years old and produce it’s long-form birth certificate.

      • Ahuitzotl

        Not if its a fatcat

  • dmsilev

    This apathetic acquiescence on the part of some voters exists, even though non-traditional metrics (Tumblr has become “a giant Bernie Sanders campaign rally”) show Bernie Sanders the clear favorite among a wide range Democrats, Independents, and even some Republicans.

    I like “non-traditional metrics”. Personally, I’m fond of the Schwarzschild metric.

    • Hogan

      He is familiar with all internet non-traditions.

    • catclub

      Personally, I’m fond of the Schwarzschild metric.

      Goodman seems to be warping spacetime in his own way, too, also.

    • The Temporary Name

      Tumblr has become “a giant Bernie Sanders campaign rally”

      Crowding out pornography demonstrates real political power.

      • BigHank53

        Or a seriously jaded audience.

        • Malaclypse

          Rule 34 means there must be Bernie policy porn.

          • N__B

            That’s kiddie Rule 34. REAL Rule 34 says that there’s Sanders/Trump slashfic.

            • PatrickG

              If said slashfic exists, it damn well better have a turgid encounter in which those two heads of windblown hair tangle together, braiding the nation’s twisted strands together in a steamy scene that would make a L’Oréal shampoo commercial blush.

              • N__B

                The slashfic is coming from inside the thread.

  • Grumpy

    The real question is this: Who else could propel a piece on the 2016 election to almost 700,000 Facebook likes, other than our future president?

    For a moment I thought he meant himself.

    • kped

      So did I. He first compares himself to Cronkite, and follows with that…

      HA! Goodman is my favorite of the Huff Post/Salon Bernie dead enders. they are all coddled man children with nothing to worry about no matter who wins, but Goodman brings a certain utter stupidity to the role that I’m amused by.

      • Cripes if you want to literally die of laughter you should check out Daily Kos’s recommended diaries every day. They snuff out a Bernie victory every time Hillary Clinton sneezes.

        • Lost Left Coaster

          I am an escapee from Daily Kos. I started commenting here around the time I finally gave in to my daily frustration and disgust with the circus that is the recommended list over there and bounced from the place for good. It’s not just the daily Bernie vs. Hillary, which is repetitious, to put it mildly, but also the constant misinformation, repetition of clickbait, constant dialing of the outrage meter to 11, etc.

        • kped

          It’s funny reading Kos himself try to walk his readers from the edge of the cliffs of supidity, but they savage him when he does. “We had a straw poll, and Bernie wins them all by at least 20! That matters!!” He’s even made posts reiterating that Dailykos is not at all representative of teh Democratic party, being mostly white dudes in their 20’s and 30’s with time on their hands. But they are all delicate snowflakes, and they are sure that they represent…something, and damn it, that matters!

        • I haven’t spent much time in the fever swamps, but Hillary vs. Bernie seems simultaneously much dumber and less acrimonious than Hillary vs. Barack. Of course, we’re not nearly so far along in the process. There was a point in 2008 when the entire liberal blogosphere seemed embroiled in an endless turf war.

          • Murc

            It’s primary season. It is more unusual than not for there to be a turf war.

            • Pseudonym

              ?

          • Quite Likely

            Why dumber? At least with this one there are legitimate policy disagreements. In 2008 I was pro-Obama but didn’t really see what the big deal was. Now I’m pro-Sanders and don’t understand the attitudes of people who don’t think the primary is a big deal.

            • kped

              dumber in that the actual policy differences are not that big, and Bernie supporters are painting Clinton as Bush. And saying they won’t vote for her.

              It is quite dumb. (as the bloggers on this site have quite correctly pointed out on numerous occasions).

              • random

                In fairness polling shows that very few Bernie supporters say they won’t vote for her, and it’s the same as the number of Clinton supporters that won’t support Bernie either.

                Basically a tempest in a teacup on its own terms but especially when compared to what’s going on in the other party right now.

            • Its ugly because of the Bernie people’s conviction that people who would vote for HRC are either evil/stupid but can be persuaded to change their vote somehow, by being harangued, humiliated, teased, or insulted. It reminds me of something that Fred Clark pointed out about RTC (real, true, christian) attitudes towards the Jews. He says that the basic assumption of the RTC is that proof of Jesus’s divinity and of Christian truth is so obvious and everpresent that it doesn’t make sense for the Jews to actually not accept Jesus. They must really be lying about how they don’t believe–so they are either stupid (can’t accept obvious reality) or evil (actively rejecting and suppressing knowledge of Christ’s divinity.) You get the same feeling reading those damned Bernie diaries.

              We obviously all want to win the election, are all Democrats, all want good things for the country so we obviously should prefer Bernie. If we don’t then all the first set of characteristics are equally obviously a lie. We don’t want to win, don’t want good things for the country, are not good people, and etc… And heckling and insulting us and HRC will probably definitely change our minds.

              • jim, some guy in iowa

                what I get out of someone like Goodman is that since Clinton is this craven deal-cutter so are her supporters and so they can be blackmailed into doing what he wants. Kind of like the National Lampoon cover ‘buy the magazine or rover gets it’

                • NonyNony

                  I think you’ve put far more thought into the argument than Goodman has.

              • Gregor Sansa

                It’s absolutely true that there is a vocal subset of Bernie supporters who are like that, the vocal Clinton supporters on DKos are not much better. “Sanders supporters are all overprivileged fools” seems to be the level of argument that the pie fighters on that side use.

                I (fool that I am) have posted a few diaries there trying to say variations of “I support Sanders, and the vocal Sanders supporters here are not helping”, and I’ve caught hell from both sides. (I’ve also gotten support from the more-subdued people, but overall pie fighting rules the day there.)

            • joe from Lowell

              Why dumber? At least with this one there are legitimate policy disagreements.

              I think it’s because the policy differences were narrower last time, the debates leaned towards policy wonkery.

              There is very little policy wonkery in the comment threads this time. Even when the diarist writes something policy-heavy, that’s not what people want to talk about. They generally want to argue about whether there are (Sanders supporters) or are not (Clinton supporters) big differences in principles.

              • Gregor Sansa

                Also, about whether Sanders supporters are “privileged”. Both sides seem to be happy debating that one. I wish I were kidding.

        • efgoldman

          Cripes if you want to literally die of laughter

          I was so depressed last week, I tried to laugh myself to death. It didn’t work.

          • N__B

            “But doctor, I am Pagliacci.”

  • Dr. Ronnie James, DO

    Everyone has a skeleton in their closet. I’d bet good money HA Goodoneman’s is that of an epically bad SEO consultant.

    • jim, some guy in iowa

      search engine optimization?

  • joe from Lowell

    HA! Goodman is a hilarious idiot. Keep ’em coming, Scott.

    But do you think there is anything else involving Bernie Sanders and his campaign that might be worth blogging about, too?

    • kped

      Well, they don’t really blog about the campaigns in general. Not like there are Hillary or O’Malley campaign posts. Honestly, I’m OK with that. Blog about the debates, but really, keep this place from becoming a hell hole of Bernie-bros vs Hillbots.

      • jim, some guy in iowa

        I go along with this. the front pagers should write what they *want* to write. It’s a big internet

    • Malaclypse
    • slothrop

      Whatever. HRC is a warmongering neoconservative, and an unreconstructed neoliberal (if you look at her recent comments about TPP for example, all she really does is leave the door open for a future return to her congenital neoliberalism in support of some sort of modification of the treaty which only likely includes the addition of random punctuation). She’s a terrible candidate as well.

      • sibusisodan

        HRC is a warmongering neoconservative, and an unreconstructed neoliberal

        Question: can one be a neoconservative and a neoliberal?

        • jim, some guy in iowa

          Clinton can. she’s all things to all people; she contains multitudes. This is proof of her essential dishonesty

          ( if Salon were to pay me by the word, I would use more)

          • joe from Lowell

            Hillary is all bad things to all bad people Lol

            • PatrickG

              Salon editor: I like the addition, but I’m afraid you won’t get paid for the edit. Also, we hvae high standards for copy edting, so you won’t get paid for faleing to punctuate the ‘Lol.

              Seriously, though, do they actually employ copy editors at Salon? Some articles are simply breathtakingly riddled with errors.

              • Ahuitzotl

                Sure they do, one anyway: say hello to Mr AutoCorrect (ou can clal hmi Autie if you liek)

        • joe from Lowell

          Yes, because neoconservative has come to refer exclusively to foreign/military policy, while neoliberal refers to domestic policy, with trade (and not military or geopolitics) being its only foreign-policy element. One could certainly be a neocon and a neoliberal.

          • random

            Neo-conservativism definitely sees the demolition of liberal domestic policies as a part of its larger mission. The main difference is that neo-cons are willing to look for ‘alternatives’ to how they take out social programs (eg “Social Security privatization”) rather than open warfare.

            At any rate, sticking strictly to foreign policy you can’t even begin to argue that the SoS from 2008-2012 was a neo-con at all.

            • joe from Lowell

              I know that’s how neoconservatism got started, through Moynihan for instance, but I’d argue that that wing of the movement has died out. On domestic policy these days, all the cons are paleocons. All the neocons are foreign policy types.

              And I wasn’t talking about Hillary in particular, just whether some generic “one” could be both a neocon and a neolib.

              • random

                On domestic policy these days, all the cons are paleocons. All the neocons are foreign policy types.

                Contemporary, modern-day neo-conservatives are just as dedicated to their agenda of stopping and unwinding the domestic liberal policy agenda as they are in reflexively resorting to violence to solve problems overseas. Basically the main difference between the paleos and the neos is that paleos descend from an explicitly white supremacist/anti-Semitic lineage. Everything else is pretty incidental to that one difference, and they have far more in common than not.

                just whether some generic “one” could be both a neocon and a neolib.

                I’d have to see some examples of what we’re talking about. It’s definitely not Clinton, she’s not a neo-conservative.

                • joe from Lowell

                  I don’t see the “alternatives” wing of the demolition effort you were describing anywhere in sight anymore, on any level other than the cynical pretext. In the 70s, there were domestic neoconservatives who actually did want to build something to deal with the problems being addressed by the welfare state.

                  I’d have to see some examples of what we’re talking about.

                  Maybe Lieberman?

                • random

                  I don’t see the “alternatives” wing of the demolition effort you were describing anywhere in sight anymore, on any level other than the cynical pretext.

                  Make a list of the top 10 highest-profile neo-cons around either 15 years ago or today; I’m sure you can cherry-pick some exceptions but overwhelmingly they are quite hostile to the domestic liberal agenda.

                  Maybe Lieberman?

                  The more he drifted over to the neo-cons the more right-wing his domestic policies became. To the point that by the end of his career he was filibustering his own social legislation proposal (after many years previously spent trying to outlaw the filibuster).

                  He’s one of the key reasons we don’t have a much more robust public health option right now and a good example of how neo-conservativism is pretty much inherently hostile to government working to promote the economic interests of poor people.

                • Gregor Sansa

                  He actually has kind of a “good” reason to be hostile to hippies in his latter career. And it’s not directly because he’s a neocon.

                • joe from Lowell

                  I’m sure you can cherry-pick some exceptions but overwhelmingly they are quite hostile to the domestic liberal agenda.

                  That’s not the part I don’t see in the modern neocon. What I don’t see is the replacement part, which you saw in neocons in the 70s and 80s, like Jack Kemp. Just the hostility and demolition part.

                  The more he drifted over to the neo-cons the more right-wing his domestic policies became.

                  Yes he did, but not into actual conservative territory. He did vote for Obamacare and the ARRA and the rest of Obama’s domestic agenda in the end. You rightly point out that he’s a big part of the reason the bill doesn’t have a public option, and why the would-be public option clients were steered towards private insurance instead. That sounds just like neoliberalism to me.

        • Quite Likely

          Definitely. All of the quintessential Bush administration neoconservatives are also neoliberals by any definition. It’s just that neoconservative is more of a foreign policy term while neoliberal is more of an economic policy term.

          • random

            Uh, no. They are fiscal conservatives. Not neo-liberals at all.

            • FlipYrWhig

              “Neoliberal” basically means “free trader,” though. It doesn’t have to do with the levels of or priorities for government spending.

              • random

                Sanders is also a neo-liberal by this definition.

                Whatever labels you want to put on it, the fact remains that you can’t plausibly argue that Bill Kristol’s economic views and philosophy are remotely the same as Hillary Clinton’s.

                In fact making that argument requires that you argue that a set of policy proposals a couple steps to the left of the ACA is really a GOP plan.

                • Gregor Sansa

                  Don’t be silly. Sanders is not a protectionist, but that doesn’t make him a neoliberal. Neoliberals love to believe that anyone who doesn’t agree with them is a protectionist, but it isn’t true.

                  For instance, Sanders supports a financial transactions tax, neoliberals don’t.

                • random

                  For instance, Sanders supports a financial transactions tax, neoliberals don’t.

                  That’s not true at all. Transaction taxes are common features in ‘neo-liberal’ economics. But this probably just goes to show how vague some of the terminology is here.

            • efgoldman

              They are fiscal conservatives.

              Well, except *real* fiscal conservatives know how to do basic arithmetic.

      • joe from Lowell

        I think Hillary is too hawkish, too, but the distance between her and the neoconservatives is a hole lot greater than the difference between her and Bernie Sanders.

        Sanders wants air raids against ISIL, and a small special forces presence, in support of indigenous forces. Hillary wants air raids, a small special forces presence, and an internationally-negotiated no-fly zone.

        Jeb Bush wants over 100,000 American troops to take, hold, and occupy the area, in preparation for a permanent, large-scale American military presence to replace the one we had in Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War.

        • Malaclypse

          Yes, but in her heart, Hillary wants a million US boots on the ground, along with a capital gains tax cut.

          • joe from Lowell

            in her heart

            Begs the question

            • Malaclypse

              Gorram descriptivist.

              • q-tip

                I thought JfL used that phrase quite prescriptivistively, my ownself.

                • Gregor Sansa

                  So, you think you’re some kind of a linguistic connoisseur, do you? Can you tell me, is there even a word for what Malaclypse and you just did? Huh?

                • Gregor Sansa

                  Honestly, I want to know if there’s a word for it, because it’s awesome.

            • Nepos

              Of course Clinton has a heart, she keeps it in a jar on her desk.

              Plot twist: It’s Cheney’s heart.

          • slothrop

            Farley knows no-fly zones. A no-fly zone in Syria is insane. Sanders is not insane. As for the whole “capital gains” rawr, HRC proposes a policy that is unsurprisingly easily evaded.

            • Malaclypse

              The article you linked is all about how flipping stocks is just capitalist efficiency that Clinton and “the left wing of the Democratic Party” don’t understand. Perhaps you wanted to link to something that might support rather than refute your thesis? Or, alternatively, you could save time and just write “HILLARY BAD,” being sure to keep the caps-lock on for verisimilitude.

              • slothrop

                I don’t gainsay anyone who specializes in tax law, because I am not a tax lawyer. But, I try to understand these tax issues as much as I care to, and I care to do so now because investment bankers floss their teeth with HRC’s undergarments.

                The capital gains proposal, as I understand, requires investors to hold on to assets for six years in order to realize 20%. This is supposed to discipline the short-term venality of bankers. Okey-dokey.

                Sanders: just double the Capital gains rate on the top 2%.He wants to tax trading and seems to want to break up the banks. He is nine points behind in Iowa, and ahead in New Hampshire.

                • Rob in CT

                  Presently you must only hold for 1 year to get the “long-term” capital gains rate. Adding 5 years to that doesn’t seem like nothing to me.

                  I like the idea of increasing capital gains taxes and introducing progressivity. And indeed, I’m voting Sanders in the primary.

                  Though I really don’t know that saying “break up the banks” is a realistic policy approach at this time (seems to me there may need to be some others steps in there).

                  All in all, I’m pro-Sanders, but Hillary the horrible is a little overdone (and I don’t much like her hawkish tendencies either!).

                • joe from Lowell

                  I’m more worried about people owning for 0.0000001 seconds than for 367 days. We need a transactions tax, even a tiny one.

                • Gregor Sansa

                  because investment bankers floss their teeth with HRC’s undergarments.

                  While this is admirably vivid, I don’t think it conveys what it was intended to. And please, don’t try to rectify it; it was saved from being creepy only by virtue of its utter strangeness.

        • Murc

          Jeb Bush wants over 100,000 American troops to take, hold, and occupy the area, in preparation for a permanent, large-scale American military presence to replace the one we had in Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War.

          Is it wrong that I don’t think Jeb Bush actually wants that?

          I think what he actually wants is a lot closer to what Kurt Schlichter envisions. Maybe with less genocide. He wants to send the army, kill a whole mess’o brown people, declare victory, go home.

          Not that it actually matters what Jeb! thinks at this point.

          • joe from Lowell

            I do not trust for a second that the mainstream of the Republican Party has abandoned Cheney’s goal of permanent American bases in Iraq.

            • Ken

              I think they must have. You can’t build bases on a glassy radioactive plain.

              (Maybe it depends on how you define “mainstream”?)

              • BigHank53

                Of course you can build bases on a glassy radioactive plain! You just have to resupply more often. A lot more often, actually, but Kellog, Brown, & Root says they’ve got a fix for that right around the corner…

                • Gregor Sansa

                  Add some airlifted lead, a nicotine-and-petcoke-based immunity to radioactive cancer, and Bill O’Reilly on a USO tour, and you have the start of my upcoming zombie apocalypse novel.

          • I don’t think Bush wants to be any kind of war president. In fact, that’s so obvious that its one of the reasons the rank and scum of the gop voters don’t like him. He obviously isn’t planning on bombing and killing a lot of brown people.

            • so-in-so

              Are we sure he WANTS to be any kind of President, as opposed to feeling the need not to “let down the side” of Bush family expectations?

          • NonyNony

            He wants to send the army, kill a whole mess’o brown people, declare victory, go home.

            I agree with Aimai – I don’t think that Jeb actually does want that. If he does – after seeing what his brother did and the aftermath of it – he’s even dumber than people are suggesting he is now.

            I think what Jeb wants is for someone to just make the problem go away. Possibly with a time machine that would settle the 2000 recount in the other direction so that he could run in an alternate 2004 where Hussein is still in Iraq and Gore was the one suffering from the aftermath of 9/11.

            • joe from Lowell

              Bush is running ads about using overwhelming force against ISIL. He’s on record for ground troops.

              I think the whole Republican campaign against Obama’s ISIL policy is a back-door attempt to get us back on those bases.

              “We need a new strategy” – yeah, because they want something completely different from what Obama wants. It’s just like their criticism of his actions after the Syrian chemical weapons crisis: they wanted to use it as an excuse for a regime change war, but he was actually being straight about his purposes when he talked about the weapons, and they hated him for it.

              • NonyNony

                Oh I heartily believe that Republican primary voters want boots on the ground to go outright conquer Iraq. Like they thought should have happened in the first place.

                I don’t think Jeb Bush wants that though. He’d do it if elected, but what he wants it for the problem to go away so he doesn’t have to think about it.

                (This is why what is truly in the heart-of-hearts of a politician is, in my opinion, mostly meaningless and you should go by what they say when it comes to predicting what they will do when they get into office. They will be constrained far more by the things they have to say to get elected than they ever will about what they truly want to do.)

                • joe from Lowell

                  That makes a lot of sense, but I don’t think the GOP grassroots is the only concern here. Republican Washington is still full of PNAC types, and Bush would be answerable to them, too.

  • Lost Left Coaster

    Huge pet peeve of mine: anyone who looks at Google’s auto search suggestions and tries to make some kind of meaningful point based on them. The only circumstances under which a meaningful point based on search suggestions can be made is if the author can explain exactly how these search suggestions are generated by Google’s algorithms. Otherwise to me it means absolutely nothing that Google often comes up with weird things when you type in different phrases, etc.

    Also, seriously, the media has been flogging the Clinton email story for months and months — why would he be surprised that, you know, there’s stuff on the Internet about it? Don’t make it right. Ugh.

    • cs

      Maybe he is claiming that people’s choice of who to vote for is influenced by the autocomplete suggestions that come up when they type candidate’s names into Google?

      • petesh

        The causation probably runs the other way. If I type in “mov” the first autofill is “movies” and the second is “movies Santa Cruz.” Guess where I live?

        • sibusisodan

          movies Santa Cruz

          “He thought he was running for President. It turns out he’s running for something a whole lot bigger than that…and there’s only 11 days till Christmas!”

          • Gregor Sansa

            Too many damn vampires.

      • rea

        people’s choice of who to vote for is influenced by the autocomplete suggestions that come up when they type candidate’s names into Google?

        So, I tried typing HA Goodman’s name into Google, and autocomplete showed me a bunch of video clips of a TV character shouting, “HA! GAY!”

        • Malaclypse

          I got H.A. Goodman Rand Paul, which lead to this.

          I’m starting to think Young Master H.A. may not be the stalwartest of stalwart liberals that ever stalwarted.

          • sibusisodan

            Actual quote:

            Finally, I’ve also written two novels about the evils of religious fundamentalism and political demagoguery.

            I don’t want to read them, but I really, really want to read them…

            • Malaclypse
              • sibusisodan

                It’s…even more than I expected. More what, I don’t know.

                From the preview, it really, really delivers what you’d expect from the opening sentence.

                • BigHank53

                  I gave up after the second sentence. I just couldn’t take any more.

              • petesh

                Hey, the new one is in the top five million of Amazon bestsellers. The old one has clearly peaked, it’s down below 5.5 million. Buy one and your mileage will vary!

                [Disclaimer (or is it boast?): my 10-year-old nonfiction book is up in the first million. Just.]

                {And no quibbling about the order of brackets and parentheses, please.}

                • Ahuitzotl

                  needs moar braces

              • PatrickG

                This book is unlike anything you’ve ever read.

                Actual part of the Amazon blurb.

                I should note that the actual sentence is:

                This book is unlike anything you’ve ever read, or ever thought the afterlife might be like.

                I don’t know what this sentence means. It feels like the result of a failed copy/paste, or possibly an accidental deletion. There is clearly missing content after that comma.

                “This book is unlike anything you’ve ever thought the afterlife might be like”. Seriously, this is breaking my brain.

            • kped

              The question is – do his books contain hyper links to his youtube videos?

        • kped

          Ken Jeong in Community!

    • Google’s search suggestions are also based on your own search history, region, and whatever other information Google can compile about you.

      • petesh

        Right. So as fake data goes, it’s beautifully circular. Is this person really that stupid? Well, it’s sort of a trout in the milk moment.

      • NonyNony

        I was going to post the same thing. What comes up says far more about the interests of Mr. HA Goodman than it does about the world at large.

        (Also, seriously “HA Goodman”? He’s a troll, right?)

      • Lost Left Coaster

        Yes, which leads to an embarrassing situation where people write articles like, “every time I type Hillary Clinton’s name into Google, I get autocompletes like ‘in the Oral Office’ and ‘lookalike sex tape’ — what does this mean for her presidential chances?”

        • kped

          not sure, but it means we have similar Google search histories
          :(

      • Warren Terra

        More than that: you can avoid some Google biases by using the incognito version of the web browser – the version that doesn’t access your cookies and so doesn’t tell Google who you are – but (1) you can’t avoid all Google biases this way (Google results are influenced by what your neighbors seem to want) and (2) autocomplete doesn’t work in incognito browsing anyway.

  • gmack

    I know anecdotes aren’t data, but I’ll note that I know lots of Bernie fans (I’m even one of them), but the only one I know who approvingly links to these Goodman articles is a full-on conspiracy nut. He’s really into “left-wing” conspiracies, mostly JFK and 9/11 Trutherism, though he kind of dabbles in ones about UFOs and contrails too (he doesn’t go in for birtherism or anti-vaxxer stuff). He’s a nice guy (he’s even a dear friend), but he’s not one for political thinking. I mention this because it seems to me that this is kind of audience who likes Goodman’s articles; it’s more or less the level at which they are written.

    • ASV

      That’s a secondary audience to the mainstream liberals walking into this trap as if they’ve never heard of trolling before.

  • mikeSchilling

    It’s well known that there’s an advantage to having a name that comes earlier alphabetically. So, aa a scientific experiment, I typed “a” into my search engine to see what the first suggestion was. Amazon! The next president of the United States will obviously be Jeff Bezos.

    • cs

      Aaron Rodgers for president?

      • Lost Left Coaster

        A-A-A Storage Company for President.

        • so-in-so

          AAA_Aardvark for the win! (Really used by some company determined to be the firs phone book listing).

          • efgoldman

            Really used by some company determined to be the firs phone book listing

            Phone…. book? I think I heard of that when I was a wee small boy.
            (There’s always a company that starts AAAA, and always one that starts ZZZZ.)

            • Gregor Sansa

              It’s like facebook, for phones.

              • N__B

                So we’ll prevent Skynet from killing us all by having it waste its time and energy liking robot cat videos?

                • Ahuitzotl

                  wrong tense. We HAVE prevented Skynet from world domination through catvideos and furious retorts to brainless SJW rants. Possibly this is a non-optimal result btw.

  • kped

    Just reading his article further, he does some remarkable mental jiu jitsu. He’ll accept each and every poll showing Hillary is untrustworthy or has negative favorability. In fact, he uses those directly as reasons Clinton cannot win. But then when it comes to her overwhelming leads…those must be skewed by landlines. And either way, they are contradictory, and therefore…one is right (she cannot be trusted), the other is wrong (she is winning by a lot), and hey, that confirms his pre-held opinions, which works out nicely!

    • NonyNony

      I like how he ignores a hundred years of American history and thinks that “untrustworthy” and “unelectable” are the same thing.

    • efgoldman

      But then when it comes to her overwhelming leads…those must be skewed by landlines.

      The polls can’t be right, because nobody’s called me yet.

  • Gregor Sansa

    I honestly believe that polls are probably slightly skewed against Sanders. I’d happily bet that when it comes to the Iowa caucus or the NH primary, he will beat the polling average by an amount that is at least visible when rounding to nearest percent. If I had to actually guess how much he’d get with a squared error loss function, and I didn’t have time to do more research to tune my guess, I’d take the latest polling average the night before the vote, and add about 2.5%.

    Of course, that still means he’s currently losing Iowa by almost 10%. Which would not be nearly close enough for him to win this thing. I put real money on him at 8:1 odds, but that was me betting my hopes. If I had to give my best guess of the odds of him winning the nomination right now, I think that 10:1 against is about right. (And I think he’d then have about 2:1 odds of winning the general, given that it’s looking like a race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio on the Republican side, and he easily dominates the first two and is competitive with the third.)

    In 2012, Santorum consistently beat his polling averages by 2-3% on average, and still lost. (And that’s the ONLY thing Sanders and Santorum have in common!)

    • efgoldman

      I’d happily bet that when it comes to the Iowa caucus or the NH primary, he will beat the polling average

      I’ve always assumed he will win NH, because he’s essentially a “favorite son.”

      • Gregor Sansa

        This is not about whether he wins or loses. It’s about whether he beats the state’s polling average. I think he will tend to do so beyond just IA and NH, unless his campaign goes into free fall (which I doubt will happen, but it’s possible, so I limited to those two out of precaution. In fact, I’d say he is about as likely to go on a sustained positive trend, beating polls by 5% each time, as on a negative one, underperforming by 2% each time. Both are about 15% likely I’d say.)

        Basically, I think that “likely voter” models are unlikely to give enough credence to Sanders enthusiasm.

        Again, I’m not saying that the skew is anything close to the gap he has to make up right now.

    • Ahuitzotl

      do you have any more of that 8:1 money hanging around…

      • N__B

        Pieces of eight? Two bits to the quarter.

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