Annual NHL Picks Post
By It’s that time of year — the most widely anticipated LGM post of the year is here! For the West, to balance my prejudices my picks will be joined by alternative selections from world-class blogger and perennially pessimistic Canucks fan Brad Plumer.
(1)Chicago v. (8)Minnesota: This is about as close as the NHL can come to an NBA-style mismatch in the 1st round. The Wild have the solid goaltending quality and least arguably the premium quality #1 defenseman you look for in an upset special, but…they’re a team with a negative goal differential in a weak division going up against the best team in the league. A Wild win might be the biggest first round upset since the Red Wings lost to San Jose in 1993, and I’m sure not picking it. BLACK HAWKS IN 5. Plumer’s also going chalk in this one.
(2)Anaheim v. (7) Detroit : I’m really torn on this. The Ducks have impressive front-line talent, and the Red Wings certainly aren’t what they were even 3 years ago; in particular, Kronwall is a pretty pale imitation of Lidstrom. Nonetheless, one has to pick some upsets, and the advanced stats show a massive advantage in Detroit’s favor. I doubt that the gap between the teams is anything like that large, but given Anaheim’s thinness the Red Wings should probably be favored to move on to the second round one more once. RED WINGS IN 7. PLUMER: ANAHEIM.
(3)Vancouver v. (6) San Jose A fascinating series; two still-talented teams who may have missed their shot (although the Sharks’ playoff underachievement has been a lot more egregious.) They’re pretty much even, and although there’s concern about Schneider’s health I’ve always thought Luongo gets a bad rap, and I wouldn’t worry about him playing well. Forced to pick, I guess I’ll say that I’ll believe that the Sharks can win a series like this when I see it. CANUCKS IN 6. GEORGE MCLELLAN PLUMER: San Jose.
(4)St. Louis v. (5) Los Angeles Another fascinating series. Two superbly coached, defensively tight teams — Chicago has to be happy with this matchup because they might be the two biggest threats in the conference to knock them off. LA’s conventional and advanced numbers are a little better, but since St. Louis had more injury problems and solidified their defense at the trade deadline, they’re not much of an underdog. No outcome would surprise me, but…a slight edge to the defending champs. KINGS IN 7. PLUMER: ST. LOUIS.
I don’t know if Berube will be doing his Eastern picks this year, but I’ll take the Rangers, Bruins, Habs, and of course Penguins (although I’m interested to see if the young Isles can at least put a scare into the Pens, who are evidently stacked but do still have Marc-Andre Fleury.) Only one thing could get me to cheer for the Bruins before the finals this year for obvious reasons, but…alas, that one thing happened, so I’ll hope they lose in Round 2. Until the Leafs are eliminated, I’ll just be thankful that I’m not reliant on the CBC.