Syrian Defections
Defections are probably the most serious indication that Assad may be in trouble:
Syria’s armed forces have been slowly bleeding defectors and deserters since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began 16 months ago. But now the military arrivals reaching Syria’s neighbors are more likely than ever to have stars on their epaulets.
In just the past five days, a Syrian general, two colonels, a major and a lieutenant defected with 33 other soldiers and arrived in Turkey on Sunday night; two brigadier generals and two colonels from Aleppo announced their defection in an opposition video on Thursday; and on the same day a Syrian Air Force pilot, who was both a colonel and a squadron commander, flew his MIG-21 to Jordan to seek asylum.
This doesn’t appear to be at a level yet that threatens the ability of the Syrian military to take offensive and defensive action against the rebels, but it indicates either dissatisfaction with the actions of the government or concern that the government can’t win. Tipping point reasoning is only somewhat helpful; I suspect that because of sectarian concerns a substantial portion of the military will keep fighting even with bleak chances of success. Unless the regime can do a better job of quashing the rebellion than it’s done so far, though, we’re probably in for a long, slow, nasty fight. Unlike Libya, there don’t appear to be any convenient geographic points where we could imagine a partition between the combatants.
Back in January I predicted that Assad would make it through 2012. I’ll stick to that, but I’m less confident now, although I also don’t see much chance for any significant international intervention.
Not particularly on-topic but MiG-21? That’s gotta be a typo. Unless he was a colonel in the Syrian equivalent of the Confederate Air Force.
MiG-21 is standard equipment in a lot of air forces around the world.
At least according to wikipedia, Syria is still a current user of the plane with 100-200 still in operation.
Of course Syria hasn’t fought an enemy which actually shoots back since 1982. So its natural their airforce is a little behind the times.
And as I recall, that engagement didn’t go too well:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mole_Cricket_19
As for Syria’s ability to take effective actions against the rebels:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/06/21/153341/some-rebels-wonder-if-syrian-troops.html
I am aware of that (as well as many Internet Traditions). I always figured Syria as fielding a slightly more advanced force by this point (Floggers at least?) – unless their military was all about Russian largesse that’s long since dried up.
The MiG-21 was produced in a large number of models. The last one, MiG-21bis was produced until 1985, and it was not that much worse plane from the other contemporary MiGs. Thus, if you an undependable ally were buying fighter planes from the Soviet in 1980s, Mig-21bis was likely the best you could get. It was flown commonly around the world until late 1990s and is still seen in many places around the third world, often with retrofitted upgrades.
In 1990s, it was possible to buy better fighters from Russia, but that required cold cash.
I’m not sure that the defections do not consolidate the regime, instead of dissipating it.
I also think that the Syrian conflict cannot be observed outside of the context of Saudi geopolitics and internal politics as well.
One way or another, economic imperatives from ever more burdensome subsidies programs is going to drive diplomatic agency throughout Western Asia. Assad, as with the Iranians, is prepared to wait this one out, if they can, because the window is only so large to maintain the international coalitions that are attempting to unseat the ruling clique. Norway’s oil strike/lockout, in which the government is deliberately slow to resolve, is just one echo of the distorting ripples outside of what is going on down there. Sooner or later, the other oil producers will make rather firm proposals to the Sauds and their partners.
I’m with Robert — Assad is likely to last out the year. In fact, I have a bet on it with John Quiggin over at Crooked Timber. The initial bet ran to August 31 of this year; a while back we extended it another six months, to March 1.
Absent foreign intervention, there’s no clear way for the rebels to win in the short or medium term. A long, erosive war of attrition might eventually grind Assad down, but that’s going to take a while. An internal coup (deposing Assad while putting a fresh Alawite face in charge) would seem a better bet — but that too presents some daunting challenges for would-be coup plotters. Could happen, but right now it seems less than an even bet.
Doug M.
Robert Fisk is now saying that “we really don’t know who the opposition is.” He knows! Just as he knows that it wasn’t Khaddafi that ordered the downing of the Pan Am flight 108(?) over Lockerbie, Scotland, But he kept silent. Not so John Pilger. Pilger said that Libya was framed. Now Hillary and Obama have killed off all the witnesses in Libya who could have testified to the whole truth of Lockerbie. I’ll never forget Hillary’s words as she viewed video feed of the mobs dragging his sodomized body through the streets of Sirte;:We came!we saw!he died!”
Hillary Clinton is no Julius Caesar!
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3515700.htm
I dare you to make less sense.
Now Hillary and Obama have killed off all the witnesses in Libya who could have testified to the whole truth of Lockerbie.
Don’t you mean Mena?
I understand that Vince Foster knew a great deal of the truth of Lockerbie.
I think its questionable whether Assad would be able to use his military as fully as Saddam did against the Kurds and Shiites – to me it seems he is both trying to limit the possibility of outside intervention (which would escalate if Assad began to fully use aeral bombardment and, if need be, his chemical stockpile) and maintain support amongst the secular sunni middle class, so his hands are a bit tied, and this will invariably lead some to defect. I would say though that until the guys wearing epauletes also happen to be Alawites, this is not something that will undermine the regime in a critical manner.