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The Inevitable Mittens

[ 10 ] March 7, 2012 |

I assume that after the not-only-delegate win in Ohio there won’t be much argument, although the immediate future consists of state tilted enough towards Santorum that some people will see an ongoing race.

Comments (10)

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  1. Murc says:

    In my mind, the question isn’t IF Mittens wins, but WHEN it happens and how damaged he ends up along the way.

    Honestly? I see this going all the way to April 24th, with an outside chance it goes all the way to June 5th. Let’s read the tea leaves!

    Santorum has made it clear he isn’t dropping out until either his support craters into Perry territory, or Mitt amasses enough delegates to win. So, okay. The next week and a half is Kansas, Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, and Missouri. With the exception of Hawaii, that there is Santorum country.

    (There’s also Puerto Rico, but I have the feeling that if the rank-and-file knew that the Republican Party awarded delegates from a spanish-speaking island that isn’t a state, their heads would explode, so I don’t think it will be all that relevant despite having a nice handful of them.)

    That keeps Santorum alive. Sure, Mittens will take Illinois, I think that’s a foregone conclusion, but then you have Louisiana right after. Maryland and Wisonsin are probably delegate wins for Mittens but, again, Santorum keeps doing well enough to keep him kicking, I think. Now we’re into April.

    April 24th has a fuckton of delegates, and they’re ALL in the northeast. New York has a ton, and while you could ordinarily think that his home state would give Santorum a win, the good people of Pennsylvania know Rick, and they know they don’t like him.

    Now, MATHEMATICALLY, that still doesn’t give Romney the win; he would have to win EVERYTHING between now and then to get over that line. But narratively, April 24th represents his next big ‘If Mitt Romney has a big night, he wins it all’ moment. And he’s fucked up a lot of those in a row now. But if he crushes Santorum there, he crushes him for good, I think.

    If for some reason Santorum is still sucking wind after the 24th, the calendar turns back in his favor, heading back south and west. In that case Mittens will probably need to score his majority in order to FINALLY end the race, and therefore things might go all the way to June 5th.

    Why June 5th? California. 172 delegates, something like 15% of the total needed, and they’re sweet, sweet, winner-take-all awarded. Nail in the coffin.

    But that’s an outside chance. I see this ending on the 24th of April.

    • Rarely Posts says:

      I don’t think Wisconsin is necessarily a delegate win for Romney. Santorum as leading in the latest polls, though of course momentum may change that. And, Santorum did well in both Iowa and Minnesota.

      Personally, I’m happy that Romney seems to be really wrapping this up (and yes, he’s been inevitable for awhile, but it’s nice to be sure), because I really didn’t want a chance at Santorum as President. Still, I am keeping my fingers crossed that the press drags this out to April 24th, since that stops Romney from really getting to pivot to the center for awhile.

      I’m also loving that Gingrich didn’t drop out. He is such an arrogant fool; it’s delicious.

    • jim says:

      I don’t see why the Republicans of Pennsylvania wouldn’t vote for Santorum. Nobody else, of course, but to win the primary he doesn’t need anyone else.

  2. c u n d gulag says:

    What was most interesting to me, was VA:
    Without Sanctimonium and Newt on the ballot as options, Paul took 40% to Mutt’s 60.

    Now, I’ll grant you, 60% seems like a lot.

    But think about this – Mutt’s ONLY opposition was a 78 year-old pro-peace, pro-pot, misogynist, racist, xenophobe, homophobe, and general all-around loon – IN VIRGINIA!
    And 4 out of 10 voters cast their ballot for the old loon.

    The base still really, really, doesn’t like Shittens.

    OK voters chose Sanctimonium. Of course they did.

  3. Okay, so the Man Who Was Afraid to Google will be the runner-up. Doesn’t that make him the favorite in the next quadrennial? Consider this– he’ll have run a national campaign, he’ll have developed a ground game, and he’ll have better access to money.

    • BigHank53 says:

      Sorta depends on whether he’d be running against Obama or not. But after another four years of birther anti-contraception no-tax lunacy…

      It is very difficult to see Mitt gaining any traction whatsoever in 2016 if he loses this year.

    • Njorl says:

      They passed over John McCain and nominated W. If there is a viable candidate who can be counted on to serve the interests of the wealthy, he’ll get the nod over Santorum. Santorum’s views will be even less popular in four years.

  4. mike in dc says:

    As Mitt’s supporters are quick to point out, McCain lost 19 states en route to the nomination. I think Mitt’s on track to beat that, and not in a good way. Plus a lot of his wins are with less than half the vote. I think the winner-take-all stuff doesn’t start until April or May?

  5. jon says:

    The important takeaway here is that results were comfortingly within expectations for all candidates, so no one’s dropping out. And that will demand MORE DEBATES! It’s a self-licking ice cream cone, I tells ya.

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