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Brokered Conventions!

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Apparently the fantasy never dies…

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  • LKS

    The 1964 convention was essentially brokered, but that was in a day when the center-left wing of the party was still big and powerful, and when there were a lot fewer primaries than there are now. Also, the outcome was never really in doubt, and the “brokering” was mainly about figuring out which delegates would switch votes so as to maximize face-saving and to score some backroom deals.

    I think it’s entirely possible that the GOP frontrunner could go to the convention without having enough committed delegates to win on a first ballot. But unlike 1964, it won’t be an ideological battle, so I would expect the runner-up’s delegates, once they’ve symbolically casted their votes as required in the first ballot, to have no trouble switching to the leader in the second ballot.

  • FMguru

    Don’t forget it’s cousin, the Electoral College Outcome That Throws Things Into The House Of Representatives.

  • Ken

    From the linked article: And then, post-convention? A totally unprepared candidate chosen in a back-room deal would suddenly have to face the national press in full campaign mode.

    Forget the national press, they’ll have to face the people who voted for the other candidates. The damage control will be difficult enough if no one has a plurality; picking someone with no delegates will make it much harder.

    • c u n d gulag

      If that person pissed-off the Liberals enough, everybody would get behind him or her 100%.

      That’s what modern Conservatism has de-evolved into – the constant search do the most to piss-off the Liberals.
      Ideas and policies to be adjusted daily, or as needed, to meet that goal.

  • Josh G.

    I agree a brokered convention is quite unlikely, but I’m still not sure exactly what will happen. I can’t think of any other primary in recent memory where the “inevitable” frontrunner couldn’t break 20% support among his party’s voters, and where the voters cycled their support among so many other candidates who all sequentially proved themselves unsuitable. The Republican voters just want anyone but Romney, but he’s the only halfway credible and electable candidate they have.

    • It’s November.

      The same thing is going to happen that happened with McCain: they’ll come around to the guy with the backing of the big donors.

      • Josh G.

        What about the 2010 teabagger nominations? The big donors didn’t want Angle and O’Donnell as their candidates in Nevada and Delaware, but the base did.

        • Halloween Jack

          And look at what a hash they made of the general elections, against opponents who would have been out of a job if the mainstream GOP candidates had been nominated. (You left out Joe Miller, who lost against a write-in opponent who had to take out ads telling voters how to spell her name.) Even the House teabaggers who got elected are vulnerable due to voters’ buyer’s remorse. “The base” may be quick on the draw with their credit cards, but money isn’t everything; Cain’s smokin’ campaign manager was bragging about their donation hauls even as his candidate was tanking in the polls.

  • rea

    Apparently the idea is that if there is no suitable candidate at the convention, the party will spontaneously turn to some popular charismatic figure, like Jeb Bush or John Thune. (/sarcasm)

    • DrDick

      The marginally sane wing of the GOP is indulging in magical fantasies that will save them from the moronic lunatics that the “base” has foisted on them. Ain’t gonna happen, but you cannot really blame them.

  • But a brokered convention would be so friggin cool!

  • bobbyp

    If that person pissed-off the Liberals enough, everybody would get behind him or her 100%.

    Coultergeist!

  • While the dreams of a brokered convention go back a ways, a lot the current writes recall how cool it was when it happened on West Wing. They miss that show. And to them, all this is just another show that they watch and talk about with their friends.

  • Jim Lynch

    I still find it hard to believe that republicans will rally to Romney.

    • DrDick

      While I think he will likely be the nominee, I do not think that the party will really “rally” behind him. There are large elements of the base (the teabaggers and talibanglicals)that are going to have a lot of trouble voting for Mittens and it will likely dampen the GOP voter turn out.

      • Jim Lynch

        I suppose that’s true. But I was referring to republican primary voters, for the simple reason that Romney is such a transparent whore. Even republicans must see through the guy. They can’t be that blind. Can they? The polls say they are, of course, but… jeezuz.

        I recollect every major candidate of either party since 1968, and there has never been anyone quite like him. I’m often wrong in my political prognostications, but rarely flabbergasted. But I am in the case of The Man From Michigan.

  • CheezWhiz

    There are 2 things I don’t understand about the
    Republican primary race.
    1: If the majority can’t find a not-Mitt to support, why did/do the “centrist” Republicans stay out?
    2: If the core strategy of Republican voting is to inflame the base, why would the big donors line up behind the one candidate who won’t/can’t?

    It will be really interesting to see who Mitt picks for the Vice slot.

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