I think this handicapping of the Republican field is correct. On paper, it’s virtually impossible to see Romney beating Perry, since the latter has far more obvious appeal to the typical GOP primary voter as well as being acceptable to Republican elites. Nor do I think that vote splitting with Bachmann will be much of a problem; modern primary fields tend to get winnowed quickly. But, then, on paper Tim Pawlenty should have been able to beat Romney handily, so…I’d better be careful. Campaigns do implode sometimes, my inability to foresee this notwithstanding.
By the way, how the hell did Pawlenty ever get elected in Minnesota? Did Martha Coakley move to Duluth and get the Dem nomination that cycle? It’s like the Twins in the postseason if they were swept seeing an average of 50 pitches a game against the Royals instead of the Yankees.