Posted these basic thoughts on twitter a few hours ago, but they deserve a little development.
I really hope that things go super awesome in the new war in Libya. I hope that the rebels win, and I really hope that a democratic state emerges.
I really hope that if they win, the rebels don’t start fighting each other. I really hope that they don’t settle scores with a blood purge of Gaddafi loyalists.
I really hope that the new regime isn’t fatally delegitimized by the Western intervention. I really hope that Gaddafi’s supporters don’t put together a bloody insurgency that lasts for years.
I really hope that if everything goes to shit, the French and British will catch at least some of the blame. Larison notwithstanding, there are some pretty important differences between how this coalition came together and how the Iraq coalition was assembled. I really hope that in the future, people will be able to do more of the “contrast” and less of the “compare” with regards to Iraq and Libya.
But then, as they say, hope is not a plan. And it’s really fucking unclear to me that anyone has a plan. And so now we’re in it, and we’ll see what happens.