Why Nations Don’t Want Nuclear Weapons

As larger nations that have nuclear weapons attack smaller nations that don’t have nuclear weapons, conventional wisdom is that more nations will want nuclear weapons. This is less certain than much of the discussion makes it out to be.

Three of the nations that have nuclear weapons – the United States, Russia, and China – also have large land masses and large militaries. The United Kingdom and France have held their nuclear weapons in connection with the United States, allied through NATO. India and Pakistan have developed nuclear weapons within their rivalry, although India also has concerns about China. Israel is in a class of its own. North Korea, in addition to its nuclear weapons,  holds South Korea’s capital, Seoul, hostage via conventional weapons. Additionally, China is North Korea’s patron.

Nuclear weapons, it is argued, provide an inffallible deterrent, but deterrence is broader than nuclear weapons. It is the sum of factors that warn off a potential aggressor, the factors that can make an attack or invasion cost more than its potential benefit. Thus, North Korea’s proximity to Seoul and its relationship to China are part of its deterrence and were effective before it acquired nuclear weapons. Even so, Donald Trump threatened nuclear attack during his first term as President, when North Korea had nuclear weapons.

Although the knowledge and computational power necessary for a nuclear weapons program are relatively easy to come by, the rest of the program is difficult and expensive, with dangers along the way. Here are the things a would-be nuclear nation must consider.

Nuclear Materials. Enriched uranium can be enough to build a number of nuclear weapons, but plutonium is also desirable. For both, a source of uranium is necessary, along with chemical processing capabilities to convert the uranium to UF6 and then to uranium metal. For a reactor, the uranium is usually in the form of uranium oxide and does not have to be enriched. Thousands of centrifuges are necessary for enrichment to weapons grade.

A reactor is necessary for plutonium production, along with chemical processing of the reactor fuel to recover the plutonium. Plutonium is harder to handle than uranium and requires gloveboxes for processing.

Conventional Explosives are relatively easy to acquire but must be shaped precisely. Additional components of nuclear weapons require precision but are generally available or can be manufactured.

Delivery Vehicles. Some method of delivering the weapons must be available. For missiles, the design of the weapon must be compatible with the missile’s capabilities. Other possible delivery vehicles are bomber aircraft or trucks. Ukraine has had some success with delivering drones in trucks. Trucks alleviate the design problems associated with missiles but are much more limited in applicability.

How Many Bombs Constitute a Deterrent? One difficulty in building up a deterrent is that at earlier stages of production, other nations may be motivated to attack the production complex, as we now see in Iran. A single bomb is unlikely to be a deterrent unless it is shown to be ready and aimed at an adversary’s high-value target.

Withdraw from the NPT or Not? All of the nations that do not have nuclear weapons have signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. By ratifying that treaty, they have promised not to build nuclear weapons. North Korea was a signatory and withdrew before building nuclear weapons. Iran has threatened to withdraw. Withdrawal, of course, is an announcement that a nation is freeing itself to build nuclear weapons.

Without withdrawing from the NPT, a nation could build a nuclear force clandestinely, but that has become more difficult than it was. Uranium production and sales are monitored. Manufacturers of components that might be used in nuclear weapons programs have set up assurances that they are not selling to proliferators. Reactors and centrifuge installations may be detected by satellite photography.

These are big steps, not just financially, but in terms of how a nation thinks of itself. The financial aspects can be overcome if the need for a nuclear weapon is felt to be great enough. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto vowed that if India got nuclear weapons, “Pakistan will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry” in order to build nuclear weapons.  The difficulties of concealing an early nuclear weapons program and the consequences beyond deterrence of its success are significant.

Photo: Pantex Plant, Texas. Nuclear weapons are assembled and disassembled here. Credit: US Department of Energy

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner