Group Dynamics
First, it was a goal. See here, for example; who is fouling whom?
Clear in the picture, the world’s greatest referee[*] has a clear view of the action as an on side Edu scores the third goal for the US. h/t Mark Devlin for the link.
I have heard one plausible counter argument to this event, (see also here), but one that runs counter to normal practice: the ref saw this and decided to halt play immediately rather than allow the play to run its course. Of course, how this evolved into a Slovenian free kick is still anybody’s guess.
[*] at least until another ref makes an equally egregious blunder in the next week or so, and one will.
But that was yesterday. Thanks to England being, well, England against Algeria, the fate of the US MNT is still in its own hands. Beat Algeria, and they’re through, period. It’s turned out to be an interesting group — certainly not the “EASY” group that The Sun so typically predicted when it was drawn. Going into the final two matches on Wednesday, every side can still qualify. If Algeria beat the United States, and England do no better than a turgid draw against Slovenia, then it’s Slovenia and Algeria who qualify out of the group.
The NYT — especially in the comments — has a good breakdown of the tie-breaking rules here. The only way it gets technical from an American perspective is if both the US and England draw: that would result in a table of Slovenia 5, US 3, England 3, Algeria 2. Then it comes down to goal differential, but by definition at three draws apiece, both England and the US would be level on that criterion. Then it’s goals scored. Here the US currently have a two goal advantage. If England draw 2-2 while the US draw 0-0, (or 5-5 and 3-3, etc.) then it comes down to flipping a coin.
I have no idea how England will fare against Slovenia. I’ve been watching England from this side of the Atlantic for ten years now, I’ve long since given up on predicting just which England side will turn up. As for the US, I have to think we will beat Algeria. They’re a solid side, well organized, but in both group matches they have played a very contained, defensive game — they’ve yet to score a goal. They have to win to progress, while for the US, a draw could suffice (if England lose, or if England draw while scoring fewer goals in the three games than the US). The US will not be playing for a draw, because an England victory requires a US victory as well, and the matches are simultaneous, but Algeria will have to go forward and stretch it out a bit, which plays into the strengths of the US side. Algeria will likely score, the US defense has not been stellar this tournament (when is it ever?) but the US should score a couple, minimum.
2-1 to the USA.
Regardless, this group hasn’t played out in quite the way many of us thought it would.
of course it was a goal, but on the other hand, this is what happens every world cup: refs who don’t have the experience of working in the premier league, serie a, or la primera liga simply aren’t up to the task.
it has been an interesting group, and i’m certainly not going to hazard any predictions, although i would advise the US team not to fall behind the third straight time….
Except: the second-worst refereeing performance (Germany v. Serbia) belongs to a Spaniard. Howard Webb, pride of the Premier League and England’s representative this Cup, is widely thought to be something of joker. (And their contribution to the 2006 finals was Graham Poll, he of the three yellow cards.) And one of the best referee of the tournament so far has been the Uzbeki, Irmatov.
fair enough – being in the big leagues alone doesn’t make you a great ref – but not being in the big leagues is bound to show at some point and almost always does.
Any actual evidence for this?
jdkbrown, i have no idea what you mean by “actual evidence” in this context.
the “actual evidence” is the judgement of numerous world cup watchers every 4 years.
the “actual evidence” is that it is impossible for a ref unused to the speed and physicality of the very best soccer to suddenly call the game well.
the “actual evidence” is that all refs are not equal, which we know from every sport, and that the odds favor the experienced over the inexperienced.
the “actual evidence” is that in basketball, the other “flow” sport i know (i don’t know hockey), the same thing happens: inexperienced refs make howlers in the postseason (so do experienced refs, as i noted above, but the inexperienced are more likely to do so)
the “actual evidence” includes examples in every world cup.
beyond that, there is no evidence at all, if by evidence you mean “an empirical study with sufficient controls in place that we could place refs of different experience into the same match and see how they would call it.” if that’s the only basis on which you’ll agree, you’re not going to agree, and i’m not going to adduce anything new to make you agree.
“Wow, small countries suck at reffing.”
http://xkcd.com/385/
Yes, this is exactly the same as gender bias. WTF?
While obviously not as pernicious, I think there’s something of the same dynamic at work. Howard is ready to dismiss mistakes made by refs from “big countries” along the lines of “everbody makes mistakes;” but when a ref from, say, Mali screws up, it’s because small-country refs just aren’t qualified. The latter attitude is widespread (hence Howard’s “numerous world cup watchers”), but I suspect it’s based on largely on a bit of big-nation arrogance and a whole lot of confirmation bias.
(This comment to mpowell, below, obviously.)
Or above, as the case may be.
Did Fabio Capello select Wayne Rooney for the squad? Just wondering because I haven’t seen him.
randy, he hasn’t been the same since the injury against bayern, but even so, he has been completely anonymous, hasn’t he?
FIFA is supposed to have a press conference about the US non-goal on Monday and I wouldn’t be surprised if this scenario plays out: if you look at Edu from the time Donovan kicks the ball, he pushes his defender before he makes his run. The ref had a clear sightline to see that and that might be why he blew the whistle.
Or it’s the worst call in sports since the non-out out that cost Armando Gallarago the perfect game.
That will be what they say was the foul, but the ref was just plain terrified that a goal would be scored by someone who committed a foul in the box. He called a foul on the offence on almost every cross.
He also could have sent off (and definitely should have given a yellow) to Dempsey about 15 seconds in when he elbowed a Slovenian in the head.
However, all that said, last game, needing a win to be sure of advancing and having a decent chance with a draw? I’d have taken that before the tournament and I’ll take it now.
Indeed, let’s drop the completely OTT reaction to a poor call and just go out and win the last match.