Stating What Should Be Self-Evident

I’m glad that someone was motivated to point out the obvious fact that Rudy Giuliani has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning the Republican primary. The fact that anyone in the media takes this seriously is right up there with the “and Hillary will jump in at the last minute and take the Democratic nomination after the convention goes to a 36th ballot” routine we saw in 2004. Except that it’s even less plausible. Can’t someone buy vibrators (or Glamour magazines) for these people so they can keep it behind closed doors? A pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, thrice-married New Yorker winning the national Republican nomination? Sure, right after the next three Royals/Pirates World Series.

Randy is right in comments, however, to note that claims about “relatively conservative” Queens (which Kerry carried by only 6 points fewer than Kings County) aren’t really operative any longer: “Queens, while not being as liberal as the Upper West Side or Berkeley is still very liberal. Communities such as Forest Hills, Long Island City, Jackson Heights (where I live) and Astoria are very liberal. Jackson Heights is not only ethnically diverse, but is also the center of the outer borough’s gay community…Everyone knows that the only borough that has a hint of conservatism is Staten Island.” The better example is that Kerry carried Suffolk County–once the white-flight epitome of sociological Long Island. And the only difference from the past three cycles is that he carried it by less of a margin than Gore or Clinton. Even in a suburban county far more conservative than New York City, national Republican candidates can’t win. It’s just not a milieu in which a successful Republican politician could be remotely competitive in a national primary, period.