MVP Blogging

Lance picks up on Rob’s previous post. With respect to A-Rod, I think that the vote was outrageously close; it’s not like I want Slappy to get the award either, but he’s easily the best in the league. A couple more notes: anyone who think he’s a post-season choker should look at what he did in Seattle, and I’d also be interested to explain how Rodriguez caused Johnson and Mussina to get hammered in the pivotal games of the ALDS.

The interesting on for me was the NL, which they also got right. This is one of the things that wanker stats can actually help you with. I had assumed that Jones was the clear choice myself–a historically good defensive CF hitting 50 HRs on a division winner? But looking up the NL Win Shares, I note that he ranked 26th. Now, I will grant that WS are better for large-n comparisons than fine single-season comparisons, especially when it comes to defense, and I’m certainly not going to argue if you tell me he’s better than Chase Utley or Troy Glaus or Carlos Beltran. (Beltran?) But when you look at it, there’s no way he was the MVP. Compare him, for example, with Giles. Outside of Petco, Giles hit 333/463/545, while Jones was 334/610. There’s no way Jones’ defense makes up that difference. And it’s the same thing with Pujols–100 OBP points is a truckload of runs–but worse, since Pujols also has Jones’ power. There’s no way that even the most generous estimate of Andruw’s defense gets you even close. As an offensive player Jones is really more Tony Armas than Willie Mays; he doesn’t really do anything but hit homers. I know is seems impossible that a Gold Glover with 50 homers may not be one of the 10 best players in the league, but there you go. I’m pleasantly surprised that the writers got it right.