Tag: green revolution

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Explaining Variance

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In Robert Farley
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On January 31, 2011
Ok, so let’s assume that Mubarak takes the easy way out and heads for healthier climes.  What explains the difference between the failure of the Green Revolution and the success of the Egyptian?  Some potential hypotheses: Ahmadinejad, whether or not (or by how much) he adjusted the election results, still had greater popular support than […]

Denounce! Renounce! Etc.

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In Uncategorized
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On June 23, 2009
In trying to break down the “Obama Should Denounce!” crowd into some subsets, I came up with the following five groups: Obama is being quiet because he thinks that US intervention would cause the situation in Iran to deteriorate; he’s wrong about that. Obama is being quiet because he thinks that the US can still […]

Befuddled

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On June 21, 2009

Why is Al Sharpton on my teevee talking to Geraldo Rivera about Iran? This is to say, what has gone wrong with the world such that I have the capacity to watch Al Sharpton talk to Geraldo Rivera about

Backdown or Bloodbath?

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On June 19, 2009

Karim Sadjadpour has some thoughts: The weight of the world now rests on the shoulders of Mir Hossein Mousavi. I expect that Khamenei’s people have privately sent signals to him that they’

Prospects

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In Uncategorized
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On June 18, 2009
When it became clear last Friday that the outcome of Iran’s election was going to be controversial, I IMed a friend that there was roughly a 1 in 4 chance that the regime would be gone in a week. The timing was certainly optimistic, and I would still say, Drezner’s analysis notwithstanding, that the regime […]
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