303-235. Figure Obama's PV around 50.5%. I expect him to have slightly over a 2% win in the PV. No clue nor care about his margin in MA. Obama loses IN, NE-2, NC, and possibly / probably FL from 2008. Democrats keep the Senate with...
Dave Brockington
In filling out my ballot yesterday and posting it off to Oregon, one of the decisions I had to make was for Clackamas County Sheriff. This decision was nearly as.
First, let's discuss the new Pew release, and attempt to do so without freaking out. It presents grim reading for at least two reasons: the four point Romney lead, and.
In keeping with the spirit of LGM on this Fourth day of October 2012, I have a few observations about yesterday's debacle debate. As Scott suggested moments ago, and as Silver wrote yesterday, challengers typically do well in the first debate. However, in this case,...
Three months ago I mashed together a little data set in order to examine variance in state level public support for the ACA, and wrote about it here. This thing has.
This is the time of the season where many if not most of us pore over the various state level election tracking sites available. Electoral Vote was a big one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v9IXwFb_cg George Galloway, former Labour (he was kicked out of the party in 2003) current "Respect Party" MP for Bradford West, and global lefty gadfly, is suing the National Union of Students for libel. Yes, he fights what he and others consider to be "the...
When I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago, I argued that voter fraud "simply doesn't exist". Mea maxima culpa. Unsurprisingly, the right has, yet again, beat the opposition.
Several days ago in these very pages, discussion ensued regarding the latest conservative attempt to rewrite reality through re-weighting polls to one guy's liking. Of course, polling is not an.
What really fascinates me about the voter fraud myth is how fervently the zealots believe this shit. None of their phantom busloads of fraudulent voters transported in from out of state have been verified. Few if any of the fraudulent votes that they identify appear...
The Hillsborough Independent Panel's report was released yesterday, following nearly three years of work re-examining the Hillsborough disaster of April 15, 1989. A good summary of the findings are here..
As Erik points out, Silver has positive news for Obama in Ohio. Much of this optimism hangs on the house effect of the recent Gravis Marketing poll; measuring and adjusting for.