Riyadh’s own Florida Man

JMM points out that the Trump Organization’s deep and corrupt interweaving with the Saudi government is a major factor in prolonging the Iran catastrophe:

There is another part of this equation which I do not think has gotten sufficient focus. On March 24th The New York Times published an article which reported that the Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has told President Trump that he needs to finish the job, overthrow the Iranian regime or render it so feeble that it cannot threaten anyone – the second condition likely being impossible without achieving the first. As the Times put it (emphasis added), “Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government.”

Placing a story like this in the Times, is about as clear and as audacious a message a Saudi ruler can send to the US government without purchasing a nationwide 30 second ad campaign. I interpret this as him saying: just to be sure the message is getting through or in case you’re getting the message and not sharing it with your people. Trump whacked a hornets nest and MBS says now Trump needs to remove the nest. It can’t be left in place. He needs to overthrow or defang the Iranian regime. The status quo is unacceptable, whatever nonsense of the day Trump may be saying about the Strait not being his problem.

The common thinking in the US is that President Trump either blundered his way into this mess or was goaded into it by Benjamin Netanyahu. There’s a bit of truth to the second idea and a lot to the first. But it’s MBS and the leader of the UAE along with other gulf princes who are really Trump’s guys, much more than Benjamin Netanyahu. The way the Trump White House has interwoven US security, money and geopolitics with them runs much deeper. And, critically and relatedly, the Trump family’s business ties with them are infinitely deeper.

I’m not saying Trump won’t follow through on these threats, though I think he’s most likely to cave again. What it means is that this war is likely to last a lot longer than most people think. What it all comes down to is that I don’t think Trump can leave, even though he’s desperate to. That is the context in which we need to see these escalating rage tweets.

Even of we avoid the worst this week, and I certainly wouldn’t bet on that, this is not going to end anytime soon, and the consequences are just going to keep getting worse.

I think the odds that Iran becomes a true domestic political crisis are seriously underrated. It’s a trap with no road out, we’re going to see massive compounding economic damage as it drags on, and the admin’s only tools involve committing spectacular crimes and/or feeding soldiers into a blender

[image or embed]— Will Stancil (@whstancil.bsky.social) Apr 5, 2026 at 4:11 PM