College Football Week 9 Thread

Another week, another gigantic pile of chaos in a super fun season. Only in college football does no one want dynasties of any kind and chaos produces ratings and conservation. So sure, Indiana, Georgia Tech, and Vanderbilt are serious playoff contenders this year. Why the hell not?

This week’s top 10 games, based on the Athletic rankings of teams from 1-136 and in order of the time the games start:

1. #7 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma (-4.5), 12, ABC. Oklahoma took too big a fall after losing to Texas with an extremely hobbled John Mateer at QB. Ole Miss lost last week and should have lost the previous week to Washington State. So color me skeptical at how good the Fightin’ Kiffins really are and so I take OU at home with the points.
2. #18 South Florida at #39 Memphis (+4.5), 12, ESPN2. One of the best lower level conference games we will see this year, with the AAC regular season winner possibly on the line. But Memphis had a bad bad loss to UAB las week and South Florida is just the better team with better wins. Bulls by a TD seems very reasonable and you don’t even need to have the full TD.
3. #14 Missouri at #8 Vanderbilt (-2.5), 3:30, ESPN. OK, I am officially finished in questioning Vandy. That’s just a damn good team. Missouri is solid too, but Diego Paiva is a college QB god. Plus you can’t listen to Eli Drinkwitz for more than one second without him talking about Jesus and I don’t want him to win. So Vandy by a field goal at home seems more than reasonable to me, even without Jesus boy yapping.
4. #23 Illinois at #34 Washington (-4.5), 3:30, Big Ten. I don’t totally trust Illinois after their ass whooping against Indiana. But then Indiana is a hell of a team. Meanwhile, Washington has done nothing and is lucky to be 5-2, having pulled the Maryland game out of their ass. It’s true enough that there’s a track record of teams in the Big 10 struggling with travel across time zones, though this has not been a problem for Oregon at least. So while one can see the Illini falling flat on a long road trip, I don’t think Washington is 4 points better than Illinois, even at home. So I take the Illini as road dogs.
5. #12 BYU at #35 Iowa State (-2.5), 3:30, FOX. I was all set to think this was a prime upset opportunity and it looks like I am not alone since Iowa State is outright favored here. That I am not sure about here. I don’t mind the Cyclones at all as a team. But do I like them by a field goal at home against a very good BYU team? I don’t particularly.
6. #28 Minnesota at #36 Iowa (-8.5), 3:30, CBS. This line is insane. I can see Iowa at home, sure. Minnesota beat up on Nebraska, but is Iowa good? I have a particular interest in this game because these are Oregon’s next two opponents. I know that betting on a lot of road dogs is not a great strategy, but 8.5 points with a bad QB? I think this is a golden line for the Gophers.
7. #43 Baylor at #22 Cincinnati (-3.5), 4, ESPN2. Baylor is 4-3 but their losses are close against good teams. They certainly aren’t bad. The Bearcats certainly aren’t bad either, having won 6 in row after an opening loss to Nebraska that doesn’t look great in retrospect. But they have a nice win against Iowa State. This is a classic whatever Big 12 game that is probably a decent if unexciting matchup. I think the Bearcats track record is better than Baylor’s, even if the two teams are probably pretty even on talent. So I take Cincinnati by more than a field goal.
8. #22 Texas at #42 Mississippi State (+6.5), 4:15, SEC. Arch Manning is a very bad QB. Maybe later he rises to be OK, but he has been an outright atrocity. Texas is surviving here through an easy schedule and getting Oklahoma when Mateer was hurt. No, the Bulldogs aren’t very good. But they’ve barely lost to both Tennessee and Florida. This has upset special written all over it in Starkville and you get a TD anyway. I take MSU with these points at least.
9. #3 Texas A&M at #19 LSU (+2.5), 7:30, ABC. It does seem that eventually A&M will fall and maybe this is the week. LSU lost to Vanderbilt and it reinforces questions about whether Brian Kelly can lead this team to the promised land or even the playoffs. And I don’t know. But I do know that A&M looks very good and very confident and LSU does not, so I will take A&M by a field goal in Death Valley.
10. #38 Houston at #27 Arizona State (-7.5), 8, ESPN. ASU is another team that took too big of a hit due to a loss with an injured QB. ASU had a great comeback win last week against Texas Tech and they are home this week. Houston is alright, but I like ASU pretty easy here.

A very rough 3-7 last week puts me at 42-42 on the season.