Week 4 College Football Thread

We are 1/3 through the season after today, which is crazy, but college football is a short season. We know quite a bit about most teams now, though a few top contenders still haven’t played anyone tough. But we know that Texas and Clemson were massively overrated, Arch Manning evidently is just a bad QB (10 incompletions in a row against UTEP?????), and that Miami is a serious title contender.

This week’s top 10 games, based on the Athletic rankings of every team, in order of when the game starts, all on eastern time.

1. #33 Texas Tech at #19 Utah (-3.5), 12, FOX. This Texas Tech ranking is quite a bit lower than the AP and I think is warranted skepticism over how good this entirely transfer purchased team really is. They’ve really played no one. The best team in three wins is Oregon State, which is an atrocity. So they’ve shown nothing so far to suggest much either way. Utah can be a very tough place to play when the Utes are good and Kyle Whittingham seems to have them back. Wyoming is certainly no power, but Utah went to Laramie last week and crushed them. So that’s kind of a thin reed, but with these two teams who still haven’t played anyone who is actually good, it’s what I have to go on. So I take Utah -3.5.
2. #35 SMU at #24 TCU (-6.5), 12, ESPN2. TCU’s resume is beating Bill Belichick, but I’m not totally sure how much that matters. It was a very nice win though, no question. SMU lost a really tough shootout to Baylor and didn’t look dominant against Missouri State last week. So it’s fair to wonder at this point how good SMU is after their surprisingly playoff appearance last year. While this line feels a bit stretched for comfort for me, I guess I will take TCU on it.
3. #12 Auburn at #13 Oklahoma (-6.5), 3:30, ABC. Auburn has looked pretty good, probably saving Hugh Freeze’s job. But Oklahoma has been excellent with their newly rejuvenated offense and I like the Sooners with the points here. I guess I don’t really believe in Auburn until they really prove it and Oklahoma did look awfully good against Michigan.
4. #25 Tulane at #16 Ole Miss (-13.5), 3:30, ESPN. Along with South Florida, Tulane has the best shot at the Group of Five playoff bid. And they beat Duke last week. But can then hang with a Lane Kiffin team in Oxford? There’s a secondary issue here though. Ole Miss’s starting QB is out. But the backup seems pretty functional. So I guess I will go with the Rebels by two TDs.
5. #27 Michigan at #39 Nebraska (+1.5), 3:30, CBS. To me, this is an question entirely about whether Bryce Underwood is all that and can win on the road. On the other hand, Nebraska always always always fails when it counts. The Cornhuskers did win a game on the road against Cincinnati by a smidge, but not sure what that means really. Anyway, I have a slight preference for Michigan here.
6. #46 West Virginia at #38 Kansas (-13.5), 6, FS1. The question here is how good the Rich Rod revival in Morgantown is. The Athletic seems to think of this as a pretty even game after WVU beat Pittsburgh last week. And that was a good game. Also, the Kansas defense hasn’t exactly looked great, at least when Missouri dropped 42 on them before KU played some laughers. So I am going to take West Virginia +13.5 here. Two TDs is a lot.
7. #28 South Carolina at #17 Missouri (-10.5), 7, ESPN. It’s fair to say that South Carolina has disappointed and LaNorris Sellers hasn’t built much on his breakout last year at QB for the Gamecocks and he may or may not play due to injury. But other than a shootout win over Kansas, Missouri hasn’t really beaten anyone. But my god did the Gamecocks get eviscerated last week against Vanderbilt. I generally don’t like a spreadt his large in a league game between two teams who are supposed to be relatively even, but given that it’s on the road with an injured QB and a generally disappointing team, I will reluctantly and probably incorrectly take Missouri here.
8. #10 Illinois at #24 Indiana (-5.5), 7:30, NBC. I don’t get this line. Indiana was a nice story last year but they have looked awfully shaky against very inferior competition outside of last week against Indiana State which is so bad that it shouldn’t even count as a game. Meanwhile, Illinois has looked fantastic. This is probably the biggest matchup in this series’ history, since traditionally Indiana is horrible and Illinois has only been sporadically good over my lifetime. So I am very behind Illinois on this spread. I know it is in Bloomington, but I’m not sure that matters, certainly not at that spread.
9. #31 Arizona State at #30 Baylor (-2.5), 7:30, FOX. This is a real even matchup between two of the better teams in the Big 12 but neither is probably super great. ASU hasn’t looked quite as good as expected, while Baylor has been somewhat better. But I think ASU is probably the more solid team overall and while this really could either way, I will take ASU +2.5.
10. #42 Michigan State at #41 USC (-17.5), 11, FOX. This game is getting a lot of attention only because an entire east coast fanbase being unable to watch a conference game because it is scheduled so late is a good metaphor for the existential crisis of the sport as it changes so fast and doesn’t care about fans. Is USC good? Is Michigan State on the way back after a couple of rough years? I tend to believe that USC is probably alright but not great and Michigan State has looked better early in the year, or at least they can score points. Defense has been pretty questionable though. On the other hand, USC only defeated Purdue by 16 last week and the Boilermakers are horrible. So I will take Michigan State +17.5

Always a bad look for ESPN when their Gameday location–today, Florida at Miami–is such a bad game that it doesn’t even get discussed much as a game. But leave it to ESPN to not choose the obvious and super fun Illinois-Indiana to pump an SEC team just a little bit more.

Last week was pretty rough for me against the spread. 3-7, putting me 16-18 on the season. Good reason to never listen to me.