Senate Democrats should not provide a political bailout to Republicans

As Josh Marshall explains, making a temporary exploding extension to Biden’s ACA subsidies the Democratic price for averting a shutdown is an incredibly bad idea:

Now we have a literal replay of that moment. The White House again needs Democrats’ vote in the Senate for a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Democratic leaders have been insisting they won’t make the same mistake again, and recent reports suggest President Trump’s increasingly aggressive attempts to seize budget authority from Congress all but assure a government shutdown at the end of the month. But a closer look suggests that Senate Democrats will insist on no meaningful brakes on Trump’s lawless actions and may, perversely, help him hold Congress next year.

Much of what I’m about to explain comes from general reporting and observation over recent weeks but also a report this morning from Punchbowl. The gist is that Senate Democrats may make their ask a short-term extension of the Obamacare subsidies which were cut as part of the President’s budget bill. Those subsidies are important. Cutting them will lead to millions of Americans losing their health insurance. Critically, those cuts kick in before the 2026 midterms, while many of the other cuts are intentionally timed to kick in after the midterms. But this move doesn’t actually restore the subsidies, just delays the cuts past the election.

I said I briefly agonized over this because even for a few months those subsidies and the coverage they provide have a big effect on people’s lives. But what we’re really talking about here is a short-term extension, which makes it far more likely these subsidies will never come back on a permanent basis, especially if Democrats fail to regain control of one or both houses of Congress in 2026. You need to read the room and understand the moment you’re in. Democrats are in a battle for everything. Helping Republicans remain in total power in Washington, DC in exchange for momentary relief is not the answer.

To be clear, Democrats should insist that Republicans undo these cuts. It should be a centerpiece of their continuing attacks on the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” They’re not trying and certainly shouldn’t try to prevent Republicans from doing this. The key is that smart Republicans already see that cutting the Obamacare subsidies was a mistake. It endangered a lot of House Republicans in swing districts. And, not surprisingly, it’s endangered those who, as the Punchbowl piece notes, are trying to make a “bipartisan” deal for an extension only until the midterms so they don’t lose their elections. Republicans are divided on this. The ones who really like the cuts don’t want to touch them. They think they’re good policy. I suspect the White House would like Democrats’ cover to push these cuts until the midterms because Trump sees losing control of Congress as an existential threat.

In an alternate universe where Republicans were willing to extend the ACA expansion with no sunset clause, that deal might be worth making even if it was a political benefit to Republicans. (It would also damage Republicans to privatize Social Security but that doesn’t mean we should want them to do it.) But if these massive cuts to healthcare are going to happen, to delay them to minimize rather than maximize the political damage would. be political malpractice of the highest order. If Schumer tries to whip this deal he should be removed from the leadership position and replaced with someone who takes beating back MAGA’s assault on American democracy seriously.