The 2024 GOP Primary
By 
Longtime readers of LGM will recollect that I was extremely, very, extraordinarily wrong about the course of the 2016 GOP Presidential primary. Even fairly late in the process, I was confident that the GOP would coalesce around an alternative to Trump, and I even held out some faint hope that he would somehow be disposed of at the convention. Not the most wrong I’ve ever been, but nevertheless pretty damn wrong. 1945 asked me to write up my assessment of the 2024 race and this time I’m inclined to agree with Paul; barring a catastrophic legal mishap or health problem, Trump will be difficult to beat in the GOP primary:
What makes Trump particularly dangerous is that he has enough independent support to pursue a third-party bid if he’s somehow defeated during the primary process. Early polling has offered strong but not unqualified support for Trump’s comeback bid, and thus far, only Trump, of all the major candidates, has announced his run.
He very much remains the favorite, even as Republican donors and elites have shied away from the former President.