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Stay in your lane


This is a super trivial issue, but here’s 538’s college football predictor at the end of the regular season, i.e., after today’s games:

Odds of making the playoff:

Georgia and Michigan: +99%

OK that works.

Now things get . . . confused:

TCU: 51%

Ohio State: 39%

Kansas State: 35%

Clemson: 35%

Utah: 18%

Alabama: 15%

Tennessee: 5%

I guess this is the problem that comes from strapping yourself to some algorithm.

I don’t have an algorithm, but I can calculate that the odds of TCU and OSU making the playoff are the same as Georgia’s and Michigan’s, which makes the odds for everybody else on this list zero. This calculation is based on nothing mathematical, but rather on some situation sense that apparently can’t be translated into formal statistical terms.

Which seems interesting in its own right.

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