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NFL Super Wildcard Day 1 Open Thread

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BENGALS (-5) over Raiders: Congratulations to Farley for seeing who would win the AFC North! The Bengals are a very high-variance team, and Maxx Crosby is likely to do a lot of damage against their poor pass protection. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Raiders parlay some sacks and turnovers with the old Joe Flacco “some big plays and ticky-tack DPI penalties on 50/50 balls” formula into a win. But the Bengals have a lot more upside and I think that will show up here.

Patriots (+4) over BILLS: I strongly recommend Nora Princiotti’s piece about Belichick’s bespoke game plans.

The season series sets the parameters of this game nicely. If Josh Allen has a game in the top third or so of his range, the Bills will win, and probably comfortably. Jones appears to be the high-floor-low-ceiling QB scouts pegged him as, and in a good organizational infrastructure a guy like that has value, but the Patriots aren’t winning a shootout if Allen is on. If Allen has one of his erratic off days, though, you have to like the chances that the Patriots figure out a way to win like they did in the first game, and it’s certainly likely to come down to the wire. The temperature is expected to be in the single digits at kickoff, so…

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