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What’s Next

Photo by Gage Skidmore (CC BY-SA 2.0)

I’m putting this in the queue before bed PT, so by the time this goes live we may know more about Warren’s intentions. But since the initial signals suggest that she’ll stay in, a few points:

  • I think Warren should drop out and endorse Sanders. I am more convinced than ever that she would make a better president than the two near-octogenarians standing, but as Paul says not only does she have no path to victory she’s not even amassing enough delegates to have much influence if something goes screwy at the convention. How much of this is her campaign’s own mistakes and how much of it is the enormous challenges any woman faces in getting traction in a presidential nomination process is moot at this point.
  • Whatever I would do in Warren’s situation, from the other side Sanders needs to work to earn Warren’s endorsement. His campaign’s amateurish handling of the story that led to the hail of snake emojis alienated the one candidate with a significant following who could plausibly endorse him if his or her campaign failed to launch. Biden owes his surprising-to-shocking performance on Super Tuesday in large measure to his recognition of the importance of building these relationships.
  • I may do something longer about this if someone doesn’t beat me to it, but it should also be noted that while it might help a little at the margins Warren dropping out isn’t going to address the fundamental related problem with Bernie’s campaign, which is that he banked on a wave of nonvoters (implausibly) being mobilized or the field not quickly winnowing rather than expanding his base within the party. Warren being on the ballot isn’t the reason he got absolutely clobbered among African-Americans voters in southern states yet again, despite facing a campaign with no money or meaningful infrastructure in most of those states. If the campaign doesn’t address this issue it doesn’t matter what Warren does, Biden is going to be the nominee.
  • Warren’s campaign does have one major legacy: playing a substantial role in Michael Bloomberg’s utter humiliation.

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