Super Bowl Open Thread

This is one of the more interesting matchups in years, with two brilliant offensive coaches (see these excellent articles about Reid and Shanahan respectively) facing off with a lot of talent at their disposal. My pick on the podcast was Chiefs -1 and I have to stick with that. And the case for the pick is straightforward. The Chiefs have a better DVOA despite the fact that their superstar QB missed two starts and was substantially compromised in several others. Passing offense tends to be more consistent game to game. And while you can’t like the prospect of needing Reid’s team to execute a game-winning two minute drill, the coach on the other sideline somehow blew a Super Bowl he literally could have won by kneeling down on every remaining play, so it’s not like he’s matching up with Bill Belichick late either.

But I must say I found Barnwell’s case for the 49ers to be disconcertingly persuasive. It’s worth reading the whole etc. if you’re interested in that kind of thing but the tl; dr is that the 49ers are better on both the offensive and defensive line and there is a lengthy history of that overcoming superior QB play in the Super Bowl (just ask the current Chiefs DC about that.) And despite Shanahan not needing to use him much in the postseason Garoppolo was, while no Mahomes, an effective QB. I could see Mahomes going hog wild, and I can also see something like Super Bowl XVII, where the young superstar QB and veteran coach are upended by a younger outstanding coach with more roster depth. The difference being, of course, that Shula had already accomplished as much as any coach in history, while Reid needs this.

Anyway, I’ll be rooting for the Chiefs to win it for Andy and Rany. Let’s hope it’s fun.