For those of you that are into this kind of thing.
Johnathan Bernstein handicaps the race here. I would say:
- He is correct that Biden is the frontrunner but a relatively weak one.
- He is correct that Warren has a material although not particularly good chance of winning the nomination,
- He is correct that in the (very unlikely) chance that a moderate darkhorse gets serious traction, it is much more likely to be Klobuchar than Buttigieg. (I’m even more bearish on the latter: running as the establishment candidate with basically no support from the actually existing party establishment sounds like drawing dead territory to me.)
- He is vastly underestimating Bernie’s chances. He’s a factional candidate, but an unusually strong one. I don’t think he’s the most likely candidate to win the nomination but I definitely think he’s the second-most.