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Iowa Debate Open Thread

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MIAMI, FLORIDA – JUNE 27: Democratic presidential candidates (L-R) former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) take part in the second night of the first Democratic presidential debate on June 27, 2019 in Miami, Florida. A field of 20 Democratic presidential candidates was split into two groups of 10 for the first debate of the 2020 election, taking place over two nights at Knight Concert Hall of the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County, hosted by NBC News, MSNBC, and Telemundo. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

For those of you that are into this kind of thing.

Johnathan Bernstein handicaps the race here. I would say:

  • He is correct that Biden is the frontrunner but a relatively weak one.
  • He is correct that Warren has a material although not particularly good chance of winning the nomination,
  • He is correct that in the (very unlikely) chance that a moderate darkhorse gets serious traction, it is much more likely to be Klobuchar than Buttigieg. (I’m even more bearish on the latter: running as the establishment candidate with basically no support from the actually existing party establishment sounds like drawing dead territory to me.)
  • He is vastly underestimating Bernie’s chances. He’s a factional candidate, but an unusually strong one. I don’t think he’s the most likely candidate to win the nomination but I definitely think he’s the second-most.

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