NFL Open Thread: Week 17 Edition
By 
Doug Farrar has a couple of items pertinent to today’s big Week 17 marquee NFC West matchup. First, BEAST MODE IS BACK:
With their top three running backs — Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise — injured, and a Week 17 game against the 49ers for all the marbles in the NFC West on the line, the Seahawks have signed Lynch to a contract through the end of the regular season and as far as they can go in the playoffs, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
This wasn’t a complete surprise. As Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network reported, Lynch returned to the Seahawks’ facility a couple of weeks ago, following Penny’s season-ending ACL injury on Dec. 8 against the Rams. Four days later, Lynch and head coach Pete Carroll were talking again.
And second, the 49er pass defense has looked vulnerable in the second half:
Then, regression happened in a big hurry. The 49ers went 2-2 in their next four games, including a Week 15 loss to the Falcons that put everybody on alert. Losing 20-17 to the Ravens is one thing, but allowing Matt Ryan to complete 22 of 34 passes for 234 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 29-22 stunner? Well, that’s not the act of a top defense. And over the last month, the 49ers’ defense has been anything but.
San Francisco has had a Positive Play Rate of 49% in that time. Their opposing QBR allowed has jumped to 102.39. They’ve saved 15.3 points above the average (the Packers have led the league in that time at 81.1), and their EPA of 24.3 is the fifth-worst in football, behind the Lions, Jaguars, Raiders, and Giants. They’ve allowed 95 completions for 987 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just one interception over that 2-2 stretch. Basically, the team that will take the field once again against the Seahawks this Sunday in hope of gaining the first overall seed in the NFL playoff picture has a defense playing like you’d expect from a team awaiting a top 10 slot in the draft.
Does this mean I’m telling you to jump on the Seahwaks, who are getting as many as 3 and a half points at home? Hahahaha no. It’s true that the 49er secondary is not nearly as impressive as their front 4 even when things are clicking. But with an already shaky Seattle o-line depleted, that front 4 should have no particular problem getting home. In contrast, the Seahawks defense doesn’t do anything particularly well and their secondary is an insult to the memory of Earl Thomas. And speaking of regression, it pains me to say this but after playing at an MVP level for half a season Rusell Wilson has had a subpar second half. It’s true that the coaching staff is doing him no favors:
And this isn’t a knock on Lamar. Every NFL organization should be constantly asking themselves how to best put their QB in position to succeed. That the Ravens are one of the few orgs to actually do so isn’t Lamar’s fault, it’s a credit to BAL. He will win the MVP and deserve it— new-age analytical (@benbbaldwin) December 26, 2019
Since the same staff will be in charge in Week 17, of course, it’s moot. The optimistic scenario is that losing all of their running backs puts Schotty and Pete in such a desperate situation that have no choice but to build a gameplan around their Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback. The more realistic scenario is that they still spend at least a quarter trying to Establish the Run with a running back whose comeback is a fun story, but also the Democrats were still in charge of the Senate the last time he had a good year. Seattle barely squeaked by the 49ers with Kittle out last time, and my guess is their luck runs out.
In the other major playoff-relevant games, I would expect the Titans to be the AFC #6 seed. Meanwhile, the Cowboys backing in because the Eagles can’t beat Donny Nickels, leading to Jason Garrett getting an ironclad lifetime contract, would be the most late-period Jerry Jones thing ever so I half-expect it to happen.