Wednesday NatSec Roundup

In a very vague and general way “national interest” does suggest a direction of policy which can be distinguished from several others which may present themselves as alternatives. It indicates that the policy is designed to promote demands which are ascribed to the nation rather than to individuals, sub-national groups, or mankind as a whole.

• Very interesting piece on the question of whether international humanitarian law (IHL) can be used to restrain cyber-operations. The Chinese insist it cannot, using a variety of extremely bad arguments about the indistinguishability of civilian and military targets in the cyber domain. The Americans insist that it can, using a set of arguments that are logically coherent, while also being extremely self-serving. My inclination is to agree with the American position, while also recognizing that this position accords with how the United States has built its economy, and its cyber-security capabilities.
• The story of the Houthi ambush of Saudi troops is filled with a complete lack of clarity. The Houthis initially claimed to have captured thousands of Saudi regular troops, which appears not to have been close to being true. The Houthis did apparently capture a substantial number of militia, most of whom have been released. The story has served as a sounding board on the competence of the Saudi military, with much pointing and laughing, less actual analysis. I will say that perceptions of Saudi military incompetence, while not exactly misplaced, are often exaggerated and extremely useful to those who want to increase the size and scope of the US commitment to KSA…
• China had a parade! Lots of cool new ICBMs… Incidentally, this take (that Chinese history is effectively anti-militarist) is awfully dumb for a lot of reasons associated with the broad arc of Chinese imperial history.
• To the above point, Chinese strategic thought is about more than just Sun Tzu and Mao Zedong…
• It looks as if the Norks may have tested a submarine launched ballistic missile? Looking forward to the next year of negotiations as the North Koreans savor the scent of Trump’s desperation…
• Speaking of the Nork question, John Bolton is making his displeasure with Trump clear… not that this is anything that we should be surprised about. It does indicate just how much of a shitshow decision-making in this administration looks like, though.