Home / General / NFL Open Thread: 2018 Picks

NFL Open Thread: 2018 Picks

/
/
/
2089 Views

AFC LEAST: 1. Team Trump 2. NYJ 3. MIA 4. BUF  Empires do not last forever, and some signs of the end of the Patriots are visible. There’s Belichick’s atypical bungling away of the #1 seed in 2015, and the disastrous decision to give away Chandler Jones is an even more important takeaway from TT’s defense getting mercilessly shredded by a replacement-level journeyman in the Super Bowl than the petulant benching of Malcolm Butler. (Back in the day, players Belichick moved on from would never burn him like that.) And Brady is in uncharted territory, and there’s always the chance he gets hurt or suddenly loses it. But Belichick with a little off his fastball is still peerless, and Brady looks about as good as ever, and they’re once again the obvious favorites in a weak conference (let alone an awful division.)  The Jets are at least headed in the right direction, with a real QB prospect, and a coach who at least is a good defensive mind, although Darnold would have to exceed expectations considerably for the future to arrive this year.  The world seems to have caught up to my skepticism about Gase and the Dolphins; disappointing teams giving away talented players to CHANGE THE CULTURE has a dreadful track record and I’d be shocked if this was an exception.  The Bills situation is just sad. Even if you’re a Josh Allen believer — which as you know I’m not — a QB who wasn’t effective in a weak peonage ball conference at a minimum would have to show exceptional development, and the Bills have weak receivers, an old running back coming off a mediocre year, and a horrible offensive line. Letting Peterman take his lumps is better than throwing Allen into the mess, but this is my bet for the worst team in the NFL.

AFC WEST: 1. KC 2. LAC (*) 3. DEN 4. OAK This division largely comes down to what you think of Mahomes, who presents the Chiefs with a higher ceiling but lower floor. I’m bullish. I’ve seen Mahomes compared to fellow big-arm Allen, but this is misleading; unlike Allen Mahomes was a very effective and accurate peonage ball QB, with the major concern being his Air Raid background. Concerns that are entirely legitimate, but Mahomes has had a year to work with one of the best coaches of QBs in the business; I think he’ll be fine. The Chargers are a trendy pick and could have a big year — Rivers quietly remains an exceptional player, and there’s certainly talent around him. But with Henry out for the year, Bosa not ready to start Week 1…I’m guessing the whole won’t quite be the sum of the parts again. If the Chargers keep underachieving Denver could step into the void; a Miller/Chubb pass rush could certainly make the Broncos defense great again.  The key is Keenum, who this far has been a tabula rasa — in a Fisherized context in which Joe Montana would struggle to be productive he looked terrible, surrounded by top-tier coaching and excellent personnel in Minnesota he was highly effective. My guess is that with the Broncos he settles into a nice generic mediocrity. I wasn’t optimistic about the Gruden hire, but it’s been a considerably greater trainwreck than even I anticipated. And if you like Gruden 2.0, you’ll love Tom Cable!

AFC NORTH: 1. PIT 2. BAL  3. CIN 4. CLE I’m going chalk, but this is actually a very interesting division. The Steelers are a stars and scrubs team missing one star in Week 1, but their core should be strong enough for another year. The Ravens defense looks superb, with the major problem being that Flacco sucks. At least if he fails to improve Ravens fans might see an exciting — if a year away — prospect. Even as a major Marvin Lewis apologist I’m not sure about bringing him back, and Dalton limits the team’s ceiling, but they weren’t awful last year and their font 7 and o-line look a lot better. The Browns — amazingly enough — have a competent veteran QB backed up by a legitimate A prospect, and a lot of talent on defense. They could even take a major leap this year, although since Hue is the best defense for the Bengals keeping Lewis I think it might need another year.

AFC SOUTH: 1. TEN 2. JAX (*) 3. HOU 4. IND Another interesting division. I’ll take a flyer on the Titans, on the basis of “no longer being coached by Mike Mularkey.”  The Jags are another team with an excellent defense at war with an extremely dubious QB; they’ll be competitive but I think they’ll regress some. The Texans arguably have the highest upside in the division, but who knows what Watt is at this point, the o-line is horrible, and if Watson gets hurt he’s backed up by…Mr. Brandon Weeden.  (Kaepernick is totally not being blackballed, though.) The Colts should consider it a victory if Luck can make it through the season, and hope they’re ready to go next year.

NFC EAST: 1. PHI 2. WAS 3. DAL 4. NYG It’s hard for champions to repeat, and between Wentz’s injury issues, losing two key offensive coaches, and some player attrition this is another example, but the Eagles are still a very good team.  As usual, I have no idea what to do with the rest of the division. Cousins-to-Smith is largely treading water, but it does establish a nice baseline for the Racial Slurs offense. The analytic models like Dallas, but they don’t know about the injuries to their vaunted offensive line, and with an arguably league-worst receiving corps they can’t afford to have Frederick out for long or Smith hurting. Assuming scouts are right about Barkley the Giants have the best wideout/RB collection in the division, and despite a shaky defense if I thought Eli was still good I’d tab them for at least a wildcard. But I don’t.

NFC WEST: 1. LAR 2. SEA 3. SF 4.ARI The only significant worry about the Rams is the Plexiglass Principle; teams that improve as much as they did last year almost always regress. But one reason for the tendency is that teams that improve a lot tend to get complacent, which isn’t the case here; however they work out they see they have a window and took some risks. The league may catch up to McVay the way it caught up to Chip, and Goff may regress a lot, but I think they’re both (especially the former) for real, and the defense should be very good. I was tempted to pick Seattle last before Thomas came back to camp, and with Carroll and Schneider’s drafts having gone from outstanding to bad to self-parody it still might happen. But they still have an outstanding QB, they finally have an o-line consisting of actuall offensive linemen not being coached by a Deep State saboteur, and the defense should at least be OK. I think Garoppolo is the real deal, but the 49ers roster was really decimated and I think they’re at least another year away from serious contention. Arizona could also finish second fur sure; they had a top 5 defense last year, and have what many consider the most pro-ready QB of the class backing up the injury-prone starter. I don’t see a second playoff team in the division but it’s at least interesting.

NFC NORTH: 1. MIN 2. GB (*) 3. DET 4. CHI This division, OTOH, should be better than merely interesting. The Vikings are an excellent team, and while Cousins is unlikely to improve on what Keenum did last year I think they were right to think he’ll come closer than Kennum himself would have. If Rodgers is healthy the Packers are instant contenders, and their secondary should be a lot better. The Lions are what they are, good enough to beat lesser teams consistently but overmatched by real contenders. The Bears trading for Mack was a coup, but Trubisky is an unknown; I’m going to wait and see.

NFC SOUTH 1. NO 2. ATL (*) 3. CAR 4. TB After their championship, the Saints wasted an unconscionable number of seasons with one of the 10 best QBs in NFL history dicking around with defenses that could have been coached by Rob Ryan and defenses that were literally coached by Rob Ryan. They finally got serious about improving, and instantly lept back into the league’s elite. As with Brady we don’t know long Brees can keep it up, but there have been no signs of decline so far; indeed, his adjusted Y/A was the best in the league last year. The Falcons remain very talented, but with Quinn and — why? — Sark back for another year I’m guessing things will keep misfiring slightly in a tough division. The Panthers certainly aren’t bad, but they have less talent than the Saints and Falcons, and while getting rid of Shula was postmature he’s been replaced by…the always innovative stylings of Mr. Norv Turner. They won’t be an easy out but it will be hard for them to make the playoffs if Brees and Ryan stay healthy. The Bucs look like a disaster. Maybe Winston finally takes a step forward when he comes back but I know how I’m betting.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
This div height required for enabling the sticky sidebar
Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views :