#LOL Actually Stuff Does Matter

There’s a faux-sophisticated tendency to assume that since everyone knows Donald Trump is terrible no bad news can matter. Even if his approval ratings were holding constant, this wouldn’t be true: it’s remarkable how bad Trump’s approval ratings are given the growth of the economy. But they don’t even seem to be:

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll puts President Donald Trump’s approval rating at just 36%. An IBD/TIPP poll also puts the President’s approval rating at 36%. Finally, a Kaiser Family Foundation poll gives Trump an approval rating of 37%. All three are declines from the last poll by each pollster, which had Trump’s approval rating in the low 40s.

We don’t know if this is the beginning of a trend or not. Three polls are just three polls, though Trump’s approval rating has declined to its lowest level since April, according to the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics trackers. Still, the President’s approval rating did not shift in Gallup’s weekly tracker.

But if there is a trend emerging of Trump’s approval rating dropping into the 30s, it’s very bad news for House Republicans heading into the midterm elections.

Voters’ feelings toward the President are arguably the most important factor in the elections. Polling shows that if voters like what he’s doing, they’re probably casting their ballots for Republican House candidates. If voters don’t like what he’s doing, they’re probably casting their ballots for Democratic House candidates. CNN’s last poll, for example, had only a 2-point difference between Trump’s net approval rating among registered voters and the Democratic margin on the generic congressional ballot.

And this can be seen in indirect ways, too: Kavanaugh is remarkably unpopular for a Supreme Court nominee. Trump is not some kind of political magician.