2016 Political Predictions, A Little Late

We at LGM have a long, glorious tradition of boldly making predictions that inevitably don’t pan out.  I’ve always tried to avoid this particular game, given the risks are high and the potential payoff the opposite.  However, over the Christmas break, the political reporter for the local paper asked me to send him some predictions, which resulted in this article. When it ran in print (which the university forwards me) it was with the pictures above: Hillary Clinton, Tudor Evans (the leader of Plymouth City Council, awarded an OBE in the New Year’s List), and yours truly.  I expect electoral ramifications for the two politicians portrayed alongside the shambolic academic).

Below, I reproduce the email I sent to Sam about said predictions.  Consider it the director’s cut of what ultimately ran in print (very lightly edited for the LGM audience).  Feel free, indeed obligated, to mock me in 11 months.  Note that the first two are about local issues that probably will not resonate with the broader LGM audience.  Also note the fine line I walk as an academic who is also a member of and activist with the Plymouth Labour Party. Tudor is a friend of mine, and indeed as part of a seminar series I run with the School of Government here I had the honor of introducing him this past Wednesday, which marks the first, and perhaps only time I’ll have introduced an OBE.

Sam,

Here we go. A mix of local / national / intl. Hope this helps.

1. Plymouth City Council elections in May. With LAB on 28, CON on 26, and UKIP on 3, it’s technically NOC, but (and I’m sure you agree) from all accounts the coalition (of sorts) is working harmoniously. The best target ward for a Labour add is probably beyond them, while Labour have two very marginal wards (and that’s putting it charitably) to defend in order to retain the current 28 seats. If I were a betting man, I’d bet that I don’t see Labour adding seats, so the best that Tudor Evans (Leader of Plymouth City Council and the Labour group) can hope for is retaining the status quo.

That said, empirically the opposition party gains seats and councils in local elections, so it’s possible that Labour can get some momentum behind them and pick up one of the current Conservative wards. However, the best bet is Peverell, which is a long shot. The paradox faced by Labour is this would ordinarily be their year, but both locally and nationally they’re protecting the massive gains made in 2012.

In pure sporting terms, I’d rather be Ian Bowyer (Leader of the Conservative opposition) than Tudor Evans going into the local elections. The Conservatives can play offense, while Labour is on the defensive. Regardless of the outcome, Labour will be electorally well positioned for 2018.

Finally, while both Tudor Evans and Ian Bowyer applaud the pragmatic, positive working relationship between Labour and the Conservatives on the council thus far, the budget next month could play havoc with that.

2. Again, locally, a major issue will continue to be transportation. The pressure to re-open the airport will get play, but continue to be kicked into touch, to Cllr Bridgeman’s dismay. There’s always the possibility of another storm causing havoc with Dawlish (we’re fortunate that Storm Frank didn’t cause more trouble than it did), but even if it gets wiped out again, expect the national government to say a lot of soothing words, and do nothing.

The national government will renew Trident as scheduled in 2016 which will give a boost to local economic confidence. Likewise, it should negate what is perhaps Plymouth Labour’s biggest vulnerability – the personal position of Jeremy Corbyn in opposition to Trident. Locally, Labour can already say that the official position of the Party is for renewal, but the concerns on the doorstep are real.

3. At the end of 2016, Jeremy Corbyn will still be the leader of the Opposition, and it will still be known as the Labour Party. While there is predictable friction between the Progress (Blairite) wing of the party and Momentum, do not expect the Opposition to fracture the way it did in the 1980s. Momentum might be agitating, but they’re no Militant Tendency. Corbyn’s massive electoral mandate garnered in the leadership election this past September will get him through 2016 easily. This remains true even if Labour
lose councils and councillors in the local elections, because, again, Labour have to defend the massive gains that they made in 2012.

4. David Cameron will claim that he has comprehensively renegotiated Britain’s relationship with the European Union. In reality, what will result is little more than symbolism (either dropping or giving Britain yet another opt out regarding the “ever closer union”), with anything practical existing only at the margins – perhaps an understanding that EU nationals in the UK can not automatically qualify for
benefits without being in work in Britain for a specified period of time. However, should a referendum on EU membership be held in 2016, Yes (i.e. remain members of the EU) will win, and this will partially deflate UKIP’s bubble.

5. But UKIP will not entirely go away. The support for UKIP transcends the single issue that it was founded on, and it’s tapped into a much deeper fear and concern about slipping standards of living for the middle and lower classes and the seeming powerlessness that national governments have in warding off the perceived injustices of globalisation. While the bogeyman is immigration, the deeper fear and motivation for said fear is real and legitimate. This explains the continued existence of the far right across Europe (and the far left for that matter) as well as the popularity of both Bernie Sanders (Democratic candidate for President) and Donald Trump in the United States.

6. 2016 is of course a Presidential election year in my home country, and everybody here wants to know about Donald Trump. I’m not going to make him the odds on favourite to win the Republican nomination – he’s slipped a bit in the polls in the past week – but whereas in 2012 between August and January there were four different candidates leading the Republican polls, by this stage Mitt Romney, the eventual nominee, was ahead by 12 points. Today (5 January) Trump is ahead by 15.5%. Ted Cruz might win Iowa, which could knock back the Trump bandwagon, but the latter is currently leading healthily in New Hampshire. It looks more likely now than a month ago that Trump could take the GOP nomination, but I still put the odds at slightly better than 50%.

That said, come November, Hillary Clinton will be elected President of the United States.