Like Investing In Subprime Mortgage Bonds

I hope that Stephen Strasburg’s injuries turn out to be relatively minor and he’s ready to go next year. But for the reasons cited by Posnanski and Neyer, I continue to think that paying the kind of money the Nationals did for Strasburg is a really, really bad bet. Most young pitchers won’t be able to sustain a major league workload, and even if they have short-term success most pitchers who start off very well as starters typically aren’t the ones who enjoy the greatest careers.

UPDATE: Oh no. The one ray of hope is that many pitchers have come back from Tommy John surgery, and in terms of his long-term success missing a year isn’t the worst thing in the world. Also, Posnanski put this more politely toward the end of his post, but Rob Dibble is an utter yutz.