A lot of people are fixing to die in Galveston tonight

I don’t know whether it will be dozens or hundreds, but my friend Steve the atmospheric scientist is pessimistic. He says that people aren’t sufficiently frightened of Ike because its maximum winds aren’t that high, but that it’s an enormous storm in terms of its total wind field, which means it’s going to create a huge surge. On the hurricane’s present path the surge will certainly top the Galveston sea wall, and he estimates that if the path holds your chances of living through the night if you’re still on Galveston island are probably less than 50%.