IED Skepticism
By It’s taken as an article of faith in some parts that a large number of IEDs in Iraq are coming from Iran, and that this phenonomenon is indicative of clear Iranian hostility to the creation of a stable Iraq. To begin with, there are a couple of logical flaws; even if we accept that many IEDs do come from Iran, it’s by no means clear that they cross the border as part of Iranian state policy. There are many, many examples of insurgencies operating across borders (and receiving supplies from foreign actors) without the blessing of either state. The Viet Cong used Cambodia as a shelter and supply depot without permission, for example, and the Irish Republican Army drew heavily on the money of US sympathizers without the direct support of the US government. Similarly, I’ve yet to see a compelling argument for why Iranian IEDs would end up, as an act of Iranian state policy, in the hands of the Sunni guerillas who continue to conduct the bulk of attacks against US forces.
Alex at Yorkshire Ranter wonders whether, in fact, there’s much evidence to suggest that Iranian IEDs are making it to Iraq in any numbers at all. Noting how easy it is to make even relatively advanced IEDs (there’s a reason for the word “improvised” in the title), he points out that British forces don’t seem to think there’s compelling reason to believe that the weapons are coming from Iran. Given that the British operate in the part of the country (the Shiite south) most likely to see heavy use of Iranian weapons, the skepticism is relevant. It’s also important to note how politically convenient it is for the US government to blame instability on Iran. If Iranians are causing the mischief, then it’s easier to a) manufacture a reason for hostile action, and b) explain away the utter failure of the United States to quell the insurgency or win the support of the populace.
Cross posted to Tapped.