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Will Trump shut down the government again?


Congressional negotiators have reached an agreement to avert another government shutdown on Friday.  It’s an obvious capitulation on the part of Republicans, who realize they have no bargaining leverage:

Sources have told CNN that the deal would include $1.375 billion dollars for barrier funding that will cover roughly 55 miles of new barrier — in the Rio Grande Valley, which had been a priority for the White House, and one of the Border Patrol’s highest priorities listed in its strategic plan. The 55 new miles represents double the amount of new miles provided in FY18 agreement.

The $1.375 billion figure is just slightly above the current funding level of $1.3 billion, and is less than a $1.6 billion Senate measure the President rejected last year. It’s also less than the $2.5 billion proposal floated by Vice President Pence that was rebuffed by Democrats and later by Trump himself.

The detention beds technically continue at their current funding level — 40,520, which ICE has surpassed by finding new money to use.

A congressional source also tells Manu Raju that the deal includes:

  • Prohibitions on use of concrete walls and only “existing technologies” for border barriers can be built.

  • There will be some restrictions in highly sensitive areas.

  • There’s an $1.7B increase in overall DHS spending (primarily for technology, ports of entry security, customs officers, humanitarian aid).

My guess is that there’s no chance the right wing scream machine is going to be OK with this, since it’s such an obvious surrender. Trump was mainlining the adoration of his idiot followers at yet another fascism-fest last night, so who knows whether his “advisers” will be able to sell this to him, or will even want to (I imagine that in the case of cosplay Goebbels, who seems to be the main force behind all this insanity, the answer will be no).

In his hour-and-15-minute address, Trump excoriated Democrats and repeated false claims that the nearby wall had meant huge cuts in the city’s violent crime. But the President told the audience he had chosen not to learn the details of a bipartisan deal to avert a shutdown before he clambered onstage. If he actually did know full well what was going on, then he couldn’t bring himself to describe what on paper appears to be a huge disappointment.
That in itself was a hint that there was no famous victory to crow about and that the agreement reached in Washington — which contains only $1.375 billion for barriers and no wall — falls well short of the President’s demands for $5.7 billion to fund a campaign promise that has an almost mystical hold on his base.
He might have dodged the question on Monday night — but Washington is waiting for an answer. What will the President do next?
The options seem to be:
(1) Just try to brazen it out and claim that this is the beautiful wall, or the start of the beautiful wall, that he promised to build, and that Mexico is paying for it.  To the extent he’s a cult leader (considerable) there’s no reason this shouldn’t work with a lot of “the base.”  ETA: Several commenters point out that he could combine this with some vague promise to use emergency powers at some point in the future if further “progress” isn’t made.  This seems like the best way of finessing the situation, which of course is a good reason to doubt Trump will do it.
(2) Veto it because the people calling the shots on this in Trump’s own head are Coulter and Hannity.
If (2) happens, is there any chance the GOP overrides?  They will be in a horrible position either way so who knows.
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