Clues About the Supreme Court and the ACA?

I have some thoughts about what the Supreme Court’s refusal to grant cert in a commerce clause case (with an angry dissent from Thomas) might mean for the constitutionality of the individual mandate. The short version: probably not much. It does make it an odds-on favorite that Scalia will vote to hold the mandate unconstitutional, but given that the case involves the regulation of health care rather than pot this isn’t shocking. Otherwise, we don’t know a lot more than we did — I’m still guessing there will be 5 votes to uphold the mandate, but that’s because I believed that ex ante.