- Oh hey.
Donald Trump spoke by telephone with Taiwan’s leader, which could lead to a major rift with China https://t.co/vPNhpVmytu
— The New York Times (@nytimes) December 3, 2016
- Oh hey.
The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 3, 2016
- Changing policy towards Taiwan has been a long-term goal of many within the GOP foreign policy community. While the Reagan, Bush, and Bush II administrations all held the line (with some variance along the way) on the policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan, there was always internal dissension (especially under Reagan and Bush II) over how hard to push Beijing. The faction that supports confrontation with Beijing seems to have the upper hand at the moment.
- Oh hey.
My statement on President-elect Trump’s phone call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen: https://t.co/2jY7HUJFdK
— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) December 3, 2016
- I expect that the short-term fallout will be reasonably limited. China is exceptionally displeased, and will make its displeasure known across a range of different venues, but we’re unlikely to see anything really severe in the near future. Beijing is also looking for clarity on what the Trump and Duterte regimes have planned for the South China Sea; I doubt that they’re going to push very hard when it still looks possible that the Philippines may fall into their lap. At the same time, I wouldn’t want to be planning any major investments in, or research trips to, the PRC in the near future.
- If Trump is going to go loose cannon on the sacred jewels of American diplomatic policy, better now than later. Right now, both US and Chinese diplomats can write this off as inexperience, and in any case the outgoing Obama administration has to pay the immediate costs. A year or two from now, it’ll be much harder to draw a bright line between off-the-cuff statements of the US President and the actual foreign policy of the United States.
- I sure am glad that we didn’t elect Hillary the Hawk who would have started a New Cold War with Russia or some such.