Casualties

Tom makes a good point; over the last Friedman Unit, US casualties in Iraq have been really, really bad. The increase preceded the Surge, but the Surge hasn’t had any apparent effect on the death rate. Casualty rates aren’t a great way to evaluate the success of a counter-insurgency operation, because more deaths may result from an increase in the tempo of activity on either side. However, allowing that it might not be evidence of escalating disaster doesn’t mean that it could be good news; casualty rates that either go up or stay the same can’t be considered progress.