Home / Robert Farley / Nork ICBM

Nork ICBM

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North Korean missile range.svg
By North-korean-missile-ranges.svg: TUBS derivative work: Cmglee – This file was derived from  North-korean-missile-ranges.svg: , CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

So as you’ve probably heard, North Korea tested a missile earlier this week that fits the extant definition of “ICBM.”  In its current form it can probably hit the thriving metropolis of Anchorage.  I hope that LGM’s Alaska correspondent can fill us in on the panic that is even at this very moment undoubtedly overtaking the streets of Juneau.

I recommend Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang on the technical and strategic details.  See also Max Fisher on some of the implications for the next step, and Stephen Haggard on the China angle. 

Additional brief thoughts:

  • Functionally, there’s not really all that much difference between North Korea having the capacity to destroy Seoul, Tokyo, Guam, Anchorage, or Seattle.  The North Koreans probably achieved the requisite level of deterrence against US/ROK attack even before they went nuclear, although the addition of nukes and long-range delivery devices an insurance policies is relevant at the margin.
  • The idea that a North Korean ICBM is going to force the US off the Korean Peninsula, or break the alliance with the ROK is fundamentally silly.  It turns out that the United States has endured the threat of nuclear attack on behalf of alliance partners in the past, and in much more dire circumstances.  The ROK-US alliance may break for a variety of reasons, but increased DPRK capabilities likely isn’t one of them.
  • Turns out that shooting missiles at Syria and dropping a large bomb on Afghanistan and sailing aircraft carriers in circles around Australia wasn’t actually enough to demonstrate our toughness and resolve.
  • And no, the Dealmaker-in-Chief cannot force China to abandon North Korea, primarily because he cannot offer anything that resolves Chinese concerns about a North Korean collapse.

 

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