Home / Robert Farley / 2012 Prediction Review

2012 Prediction Review


The prediction process for 2012 went better than for 2011:

World Series Champion: Texas Rangers (San Francisco Giants)
College Basketball National Champion: Kentucky Wildcats
Israeli Strikes on Iran:0
3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth: 2.0% (2.0-2.7-3.1)
Number of Syrian Presidents named Assad on 12/31/12: 1
North Korean nuclear tests: 1 (0)
November 2012 Unemployment: 8.1% (7.7%)
Democratic seats, Senate: 47 (53+)
Democratic seats, House: 220 (201)
GOP Presidential Nominee: Mitt Romney
Barack Obama Electoral Votes: 272 (332)
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 485 (405)

Giving myself half points for GDP (nailed the revised number) and for Obama (at least I picked the right guy). That makes 5 out of 12, a dramatic improvement And now for 2013:

World Series Champion: Cincinnati Reds
Number of new Venezuelan Presidents: 1
Academy Award, Best Picture: Lincoln
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 315 (+/- 15)
North Korean nuclear tests: 1
Sunsets on the Syria under President of Bashar al-Assad: 75 (+/- 7)
College Basketball National Champion: Louisville Cardinals
Heisman Trophy: Marcus Mariota
Israeli strikes on Iran: 0
Egyptian Military Coups: 1
Supreme Court vacancies: 1
2013 3rd Quarter GDP growth: 3.2% (+/-.2%)
Number of former Russian aircraft carriers delivered to Indian Navy: 0
Barack Obama approval rate, 12/31/13: 51.3% (+/- .3%)

See also Dave Weigel and Jonathan Bernstein on the subject of predictions. On the more substantive review/prediction industry, see McGrath (maritime trends)  and Feng (naval developments in China from 2012).

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google+
  • Linkedin
  • Pinterest
  • Shouldn’t that approval rating be for 12/31/2013?

    • Robert Farley


  • cpinva

    at least you were wrong on the right side of the unemployment rate. too bad you didn’t include that for 2013, maybe you could drop it even lower.

    i am curious though, what’s your rationale for predicting a military coup in egypt? will the country become that unstable this year?

  • Ted

    If that first one is right I don’t care about any of the others. I’m skeptical, though.

    • Timb

      Can a team built around around pitching and defense win without a CF? I sure hope they can.

  • If you have Cincinnati Reds winning the World Series, it raises an obvious question- What day does Cincinnati fires Dusty Baker to make that possible?

    • Woodrowfan

      Yeah, he’s not a bad manager overall, but he is too stubborn to see when something isn’t working..

      • Timb

        Which is why he’s done such a terrible job for the Reds

  • Walt

    Do you think Chavez is going to die, or leave office?

    • chris y

      Chavez is three quarters dead right now. New Venezuelan Presidents > 0 can be assumed. I’m interested and relieved that Farley thinks there will only be one in the year.

      • c u n d gulag

        I predict, that the day Chavez dies, we’ll find out that his last words were, “Fidel Castro still lives.”

        And we’ll find that Castro died earlier in the day.

  • jadegold

    Randy Forbes (R-VA) “an intellect?”

    Does McGrath really believe this?

  • njorl

    I don’t know about your World Series or NCAA Basketball predictions, but you’ve got the Stanley Cup nailed.

    • Patrick

      There’s been at least some talk in Canadian media of awarding it to an amateur or semi-pro team, since it’s at least nominally separate from the NHL organization. I think that’s a great idea, if only as a pub trivia asterisk.

  • Randy Groepper

    Bed Bugs Chicago, Treatment of Bed Bugs Chicago, Removal of Bed Bugs Chicago Same day bed bug removal available at http://www.bedbugstreatmentchicago.com/

  • Pingback: Better than Usual! - Lawyers, Guns & Money : Lawyers, Guns & Money()

  • Pingback: 2013 Pundit Blogger Accountability Act Compliance Report - Lawyers, Guns & Money : Lawyers, Guns & Money()

It is main inner container footer text