2012 Prediction Review
The prediction process for 2012 went better than for 2011:
World Series Champion: Texas Rangers (San Francisco Giants)
College Basketball National Champion: Kentucky Wildcats
Israeli Strikes on Iran:0
3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth: 2.0% (2.0-2.7-3.1)
Number of Syrian Presidents named Assad on 12/31/12: 1
North Korean nuclear tests: 1 (0)
November 2012 Unemployment: 8.1% (7.7%)
Democratic seats, Senate: 47 (53+)
Democratic seats, House: 220 (201)
GOP Presidential Nominee: Mitt Romney
Barack Obama Electoral Votes: 272 (332)
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 485 (405)
Giving myself half points for GDP (nailed the revised number) and for Obama (at least I picked the right guy). That makes 5 out of 12, a dramatic improvement And now for 2013:
World Series Champion: Cincinnati Reds
Number of new Venezuelan Presidents: 1
Academy Award, Best Picture: Lincoln
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 315 (+/- 15)
North Korean nuclear tests: 1
Sunsets on the Syria under President of Bashar al-Assad: 75 (+/- 7)
College Basketball National Champion: Louisville Cardinals
Heisman Trophy: Marcus Mariota
Israeli strikes on Iran: 0
Egyptian Military Coups: 1
Supreme Court vacancies: 1
2013 3rd Quarter GDP growth: 3.2% (+/-.2%)
Number of former Russian aircraft carriers delivered to Indian Navy: 0
Barack Obama approval rate, 12/31/13: 51.3% (+/- .3%)
See also Dave Weigel and Jonathan Bernstein on the subject of predictions. On the more substantive review/prediction industry, see McGrath (maritime trends) and Feng (naval developments in China from 2012).
Shouldn’t that approval rating be for 12/31/2013?
Ayup!
at least you were wrong on the right side of the unemployment rate. too bad you didn’t include that for 2013, maybe you could drop it even lower.
i am curious though, what’s your rationale for predicting a military coup in egypt? will the country become that unstable this year?
If that first one is right I don’t care about any of the others. I’m skeptical, though.
Can a team built around around pitching and defense win without a CF? I sure hope they can.
If you have Cincinnati Reds winning the World Series, it raises an obvious question- What day does Cincinnati fires Dusty Baker to make that possible?
Yeah, he’s not a bad manager overall, but he is too stubborn to see when something isn’t working..
Which is why he’s done such a terrible job for the Reds
Do you think Chavez is going to die, or leave office?
Chavez is three quarters dead right now. New Venezuelan Presidents > 0 can be assumed. I’m interested and relieved that Farley thinks there will only be one in the year.
I predict, that the day Chavez dies, we’ll find out that his last words were, “Fidel Castro still lives.”
And we’ll find that Castro died earlier in the day.
Randy Forbes (R-VA) “an intellect?”
Does McGrath really believe this?
I don’t know about your World Series or NCAA Basketball predictions, but you’ve got the Stanley Cup nailed.
There’s been at least some talk in Canadian media of awarding it to an amateur or semi-pro team, since it’s at least nominally separate from the NHL organization. I think that’s a great idea, if only as a pub trivia asterisk.
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