Chinese Military Preparation

Very solid article in Friday’s NYT on China’s increasing military prowess. China is making a remarkably rational set of upgrades to its air and naval forces. The focus of Chinese attention remains the conquest of Taiwan, which presents two operational problems. The first problem involves the transit of land forces from the mainland to the Taiwanese coast, and is remarkably difficult. Taiwan has few beaches suitable for invasion, and has heavily fortified its vulnerable areas. Accordingly, the PLAN has considerably increased its amphibious assault capabilites, just as the PLA has concentrated on air superiority. Air superiority, which the Chinese probably have over Taiwanese forces, will allow the amphibious assault ships to make relatively unmolested trips across the straits. China has also been rapidly increasing the number of short range ballistic missiles in the Taiwan theater. The military effect of these missiles is unclear; hitting Taiwanese cities probably won’t do much more than kill civilians, and naval and air facilities are difficult to knock out. Nonetheless, the missiles would probably interfere to some degree with Taiwanese naval and air operations.

The second problem in deterring or delaying US intervention. The PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) has flirted with a blue water project, but I don’t think they’ll actually be moving in that direction anytime soon. The earliest date that the Chinese will be able to deploy a pair of effective aircraft carriers is probably 2020. I’m inclined to think that the Chinese will probably forego the aircraft carrier altogether, and instead concentrate on ways to sink US carriers. To this goal, they’ve stepped up construction and purchase of attack submarines designed push American carriers farther out to sea. The farther out US carriers are, the fewer sorties their fighters can fly.

In any case, the article suggests that some analysts believe that the Chinese may be able to seize Taiwan even in the face of a US intervention. That’s a pretty big deal, if true. It would place the onus of intervention clearly on the President of the United States, and would require a full invasion of a Chinese controlled Taiwan, which is an operation much more complicated and demanding than a cross straights defense. I can’t imagine that any Chinese leadership, having paid the price of seizing Taiwan, could be forced to give it up without a brutal fight.

I really, really hope that this administration doesn’t play the Taiwan situation as badly as it has played every other foreign policy situation. Maybe China will back down in the face of Taiwanese independence, but I very much doubt it, and the price of being wrong is enormous.