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Ending this Stupid War

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Some thoughts at National Security Journal about how to end this stupid war:

The President has no good options. The Iran War is a whirlwind of executive incompetence, embarked upon for no good reason, conducted with no clear strategy, and drawing to no visible endgame. It is difficult at this point to see how an accord will leave the US in a better position than when it started, beyond the unlikely possibility of a sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic. That said, the President’s precarious domestic situation offers an opening for some kind of war termination, if not on terms that the United States would prefer.

A basic deal would involve easing both the US and Iranian blockades in stages. Iran may insist upon a greater degree of control over the Strait than it enjoyed before the war, although any charges will be described as “fees” rather than “tolls.”

There will be no meaningful controls over Iran’s ballistic missile or drone programs, or a relaxation of its support for militias in Iraq and Yemen. The nuclear program remains the toughest place to find a face-saving compromise for both sides, but as we draw closer to the November midterms, the nature of that compromise is likely to increasingly favor Iran.

A deal along these terms could end the war… for now. It will not, however, eliminate the core issues that led to the conflict in the first place, meaning that war is likely to resume in the not-too-distant future and once again entangle the United States.

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