There is a crack in everything, that’s how the light gets in

Seattle, WA, May 16 2026

Even before news about the most corrupt act in the history of the American presidency was finalized, we are finally seeing Trump drop below what had previously been a pretty solid floor in his approval ratings [gift link]:

Over the last decade, it’s often been said that President Trump’s support has a low ceiling but a high floor.

In this morning’s latest New York Times/Siena poll, whether Mr. Trump really has a high floor is starting to be put to the test.

Just 37 percent of Americans approve of his performance as president, a drop of four percentage points from the last Times/Siena poll in January and his lowest approval rating in any Times/Siena survey in either term.

A four-point decline isn’t necessarily huge, but it puts Mr. Trump’s ratings in new political territory. While recent presidencies have often been unpopular and polarizing, no president’s approval rating has been under 38 percent for more than a few days in the last 17 years, according to our average. If there has been a floor during this partisan era of politics, Mr. Trump’s ratings today have fallen to it.

While it’s too soon to say whether the war in Iran and high gas prices will ultimately break the floor in Mr. Trump’s support, the poll leaves no doubt that these issues could pull his approval ratings down even lower. Just 28 percent of voters approve of his handling of the cost of living, and only 31 percent approve of his handling of the war. Just 30 percent say he made the “right decision” in choosing to attack Iran.

The most immediate political consequence is that Democrats appear increasingly well positioned for the midterm elections in November. The poll shows Democrats have a double-digit lead, 50 percent to 39 percent, when registered voters are asked which party’s candidate they’ll support for Congress. That’s a notable shift from Times/Siena polls earlier this cycle — which showed Democrats up two to five points.

Anything like it would easily overcome the Republicans’ redistricting advantage in the House and suggest that Democrats could be highly competitive in the Senate. And although there’s still a long time until the election, Democrats held an even larger 14-point lead among those who said they were “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote.

Four points may not be a big deal in the abstract, but in a context in which statewide elections are essentially national, it’s pretty much the difference between the Senate actually being in play than not. Combine that with the fact that the Democratic coalition is now much more optimized for midterm elections, and…there’s a reason John Roberts turned the disenfranchisement dial up to 11, and the odds are that it won’t be enough.