Towering political supergenius
By 
Iran is exporting more oil now than it was before the war:
Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers.
As Gulf Arab oil producers from Saudi Arabia to Iraq cut production and scramble for new routes that bypass the strait, Iran is conducting business as usual, according to data from tanker-tracking firm Kpler, throwing a financial lifeline to Tehran as it comes under blistering attack from the U.S. and Israel.
Since the war started on Feb. 28, seven tankers have loaded oil off the Iranian coast, according to Kpler. At least two of the most recent loadings are out of the Persian Gulf, Kpler said. Over the past six days, tankers have loaded a daily average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil, higher than the 2 million barrels a day Iran exported in February, according to Kpler.
Iran’s export levels can vary week to week, but the recent increase shows that, unlike other producers, their shipments are unimpeded and that China hasn’t lost its appetite for Tehran’s crude.
And the Iranian leadership also understands that market declines are the one thing that can lead to TACO:
Iran has spurned two messages from Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, seeking a ceasefire as its leaders sense it is not losing the war and the US president is at the minimum feeling the political pressure.
The foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has further said a unilateral declaration from Trump that the US had won the war would not bring an end to the conflict. The implication is that even if the US announced a willingness to end its attacks, Iran might be willing to continue the conflict in some form, or keep its chokehold on shipping seeking to navigate the strait of Hormuz.
Iran believes there can be no end to the conflict until it believes Trump has been shown the economic, political and military cost is so high that it is not worth repeating. It is instead insisting on a permanent deal that includes a US commitment not to attack Iran again.
“If a ceasefire is to be established or the war stopped there must be a guarantee that aggressive actions against Iran will not be repeated. Otherwise if another attack occurs after a few months such a ceasefire would be meaningless,” said Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister.
The defiance is remarkable for a regime that at the start of the war 11 days ago was seeking little more than its own survival.
Ol’ Try-the-Veal Bowles notwithstanding, we might have to consider the possibility that this was not a carefully considered war plan.